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Sea-level Rise and Continuity of Statehood

Lonér, Teo LU (2026) JURM02 20261
Department of Law
Faculty of Law
Abstract
Sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change poses an unprecedent-ed challenge to international law. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the prospect of partial or complete territorial inundation raises fundamental questions concerning the continued existence of States whose territory may become uninhabitable or disappear entirely. Under traditional interpretations of the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, territory constitutes a central element of statehood. At the same time, international law has long recognized a strong presumption in favor of state continuity, even where States experience profound changes to their territory, population, or governmental structures.
This thesis examines whether,... (More)
Sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change poses an unprecedent-ed challenge to international law. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the prospect of partial or complete territorial inundation raises fundamental questions concerning the continued existence of States whose territory may become uninhabitable or disappear entirely. Under traditional interpretations of the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, territory constitutes a central element of statehood. At the same time, international law has long recognized a strong presumption in favor of state continuity, even where States experience profound changes to their territory, population, or governmental structures.
This thesis examines whether, and on what legal basis, the continuity of state-hood for SIDS threatened by climate-induced territorial loss can be reconciled with the territorial requirement of international law. Employing a doctrinal legal methodology, the study analyses treaties, customary international law, judicial decisions, institutional materials, and legal scholarship. Particular at-tention is devoted to the doctrine of state continuity, the work of the Interna-tional Law Commission (ILC) Study Group on Sea-Level Rise in Relation to International Law, the 2025 Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change, and re-cent State practice, including the Falepili Union Treaty, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Declaration on the Continuity of Statehood, and the AOSIS Declaration on Sea-Level Rise and Statehood.
The thesis finds that international law increasingly supports a presumption of state continuity notwithstanding climate-induced territorial loss. While the Montevideo criteria remain central to the creation of States, they do not rigidly govern state continuity. Contemporary institutional developments and emerg-ing State practice indicate that continuity may be preserved through an inter-pretation of territory that emphasizes its functional role in enabling govern-ance, jurisdiction, and political community rather than its purely physical ex-istence. Accordingly, the loss of habitable territory does not necessarily entail the extinction of statehood where a coherent political community, governmen-tal structures, and international recognition persist.
The study further demonstrates that this reconciliation carries significant im-plications for the doctrine of statehood. Effectiveness is increasingly under-stood in institutional and relational rather than exclusively territorial terms, recognition assumes a more prominent role in sustaining continuity, and sov-ereignty may be exercised through cooperative and extraterritorial arrange-ments. The thesis concludes that the emerging presumption of continuity re-flects an adaptation of international law aimed at preserving legal stability, self-determination, and international legal personality in the face of climate-induced territorial loss. (Less)
Abstract (Swedish)
Havsnivåhöjningar till följd av antropogena klimatförändringar utgör en
växande utmaning för folkrätten. För små östater under utveckling (SIDS)
innebär stigande havsnivåer en risk för att delar av eller hela deras territorium
blir obeboeliga eller permanent översvämmas. Detta aktualiserar grundläggande frågor om staters fortsatta existens enligt folkrätten. Enligt den traditionella statsläran utgör territorium ett centralt kriterium för statsstatus. Samtidigt präglas folkrätten av en stark presumtion för statskontinuitet, vilket
innebär att redan existerande stater som huvudregel består trots omfattande
förändringar av deras territorium, befolkning eller styrelseskick.
Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka om och i så fall på... (More)
Havsnivåhöjningar till följd av antropogena klimatförändringar utgör en
växande utmaning för folkrätten. För små östater under utveckling (SIDS)
innebär stigande havsnivåer en risk för att delar av eller hela deras territorium
blir obeboeliga eller permanent översvämmas. Detta aktualiserar grundläggande frågor om staters fortsatta existens enligt folkrätten. Enligt den traditionella statsläran utgör territorium ett centralt kriterium för statsstatus. Samtidigt präglas folkrätten av en stark presumtion för statskontinuitet, vilket
innebär att redan existerande stater som huvudregel består trots omfattande
förändringar av deras territorium, befolkning eller styrelseskick.
Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka om och i så fall på vilken rättslig
grund statskontinuitet för SIDS som hotas av klimatrelaterad territoriell förlust kan förenas med folkrättens territoriella krav. Studien genomförs med en
rättsdogmatisk metod och bygger på en analys av traktater, internationell
sedvanerätt, rättspraxis, institutionella dokument och juridisk doktrin. Särskild uppmärksamhet ägnas åt läran om statskontinuitet, Internationella
lagkommissionens (ILC) arbete om havsnivåhöjningar i relation till internationell rätt, Internationella domstolens (ICJ) rådgivande yttrande om staters
skyldigheter i fråga om klimatförändringar från 2025 samt senare statspraktik, däribland Falepili Union-fördraget mellan Australien och Tuvalu, Stillahavsforumets deklaration om statskontinuitet och Alliansen av små östater
(AOSIS) deklaration om havsnivåhöjningar och statskap.
Uppsatsen visar att folkrätten i allt högre grad ger stöd för en presumtion för
fortsatt statskap trots klimatrelaterad territoriell förlust. Även om Montevideokonventionens kriterier fortsatt är av central betydelse för bildandet av
nya stater, kan de inte anses utgöra ett strikt ramverk för bedömningen av
statskontinuitet. Samtida institutionella utvecklingar och framväxande
statspraktik talar i stället för en mer funktionell syn på territoriet, där dess
betydelse ligger i att möjliggöra styrning, jurisdiktion och upprätthållandet av
en politisk gemenskap snarare än i dess rent fysiska existens. Förlusten av
beboeligt territorium behöver därmed inte innebära att en stat upphör att existera, förutsatt att dess politiska gemenskap, institutioner och internationella
rättsliga ställning består.
Analysen visar samtidigt att en sådan utveckling får betydande konsekvenser
för folkrättens statsbegrepp. Effektivitetsprincipen får en mer institutionell
och relationell innebörd, erkännande får ökad betydelse för upprätthållandet
av statskontinuitet och suveränitet kan i större utsträckning komma att utövas
genom samarbetsbaserade och extraterritoriella lösningar. Sammantaget visar
studien att den framväxande presumtionen för statskontinuitet inte innebär ett
avsteg från folkrättens grundläggande principer, utan snarare en gradvis
anpassning av statsläran till de utmaningar som klimatförändringarna medför. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Lonér, Teo LU
supervisor
organization
course
JURM02 20261
year
type
H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
subject
keywords
Public International Law, Sea-Level Rise, Climate Change, Statehood, State Continuity, SIDS, Territory
language
English
id
9226817
date added to LUP
2026-06-10 09:42:03
date last changed
2026-06-10 09:42:03
@misc{9226817,
  abstract     = {{Sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change poses an unprecedent-ed challenge to international law. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the prospect of partial or complete territorial inundation raises fundamental questions concerning the continued existence of States whose territory may become uninhabitable or disappear entirely. Under traditional interpretations of the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, territory constitutes a central element of statehood. At the same time, international law has long recognized a strong presumption in favor of state continuity, even where States experience profound changes to their territory, population, or governmental structures.
This thesis examines whether, and on what legal basis, the continuity of state-hood for SIDS threatened by climate-induced territorial loss can be reconciled with the territorial requirement of international law. Employing a doctrinal legal methodology, the study analyses treaties, customary international law, judicial decisions, institutional materials, and legal scholarship. Particular at-tention is devoted to the doctrine of state continuity, the work of the Interna-tional Law Commission (ILC) Study Group on Sea-Level Rise in Relation to International Law, the 2025 Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change, and re-cent State practice, including the Falepili Union Treaty, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Declaration on the Continuity of Statehood, and the AOSIS Declaration on Sea-Level Rise and Statehood.
The thesis finds that international law increasingly supports a presumption of state continuity notwithstanding climate-induced territorial loss. While the Montevideo criteria remain central to the creation of States, they do not rigidly govern state continuity. Contemporary institutional developments and emerg-ing State practice indicate that continuity may be preserved through an inter-pretation of territory that emphasizes its functional role in enabling govern-ance, jurisdiction, and political community rather than its purely physical ex-istence. Accordingly, the loss of habitable territory does not necessarily entail the extinction of statehood where a coherent political community, governmen-tal structures, and international recognition persist.
The study further demonstrates that this reconciliation carries significant im-plications for the doctrine of statehood. Effectiveness is increasingly under-stood in institutional and relational rather than exclusively territorial terms, recognition assumes a more prominent role in sustaining continuity, and sov-ereignty may be exercised through cooperative and extraterritorial arrange-ments. The thesis concludes that the emerging presumption of continuity re-flects an adaptation of international law aimed at preserving legal stability, self-determination, and international legal personality in the face of climate-induced territorial loss.}},
  author       = {{Lonér, Teo}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Sea-level Rise and Continuity of Statehood}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}