Minimalitet eller kontinuitet? – En kvantitativ studie av koalitionskontinuitet och minimala koalitioner i svenska kommunfullmäktigen
(2026) STVM25 20261Department of Political Science
- Abstract
- Traditional coalition formation theory suggests that parties will aim to form minimal coalitions. Previous empirical research, however, has repeatedly shown that minority coalitions as well as oversized coalitions are common. The traditional theory assumes the coalition formation takes place in a vacuum. This thesis suggests that the logic of the coalition formation ”game” changes when parties take into consideration previous collaborations, as well as future ambitions. Against this background, I theorise that coalition continuity and reëlections lead to larger and oversized coalition outcomes.
The study analyses coalition formation in Swedish municipalities following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections, using quantitative... (More) - Traditional coalition formation theory suggests that parties will aim to form minimal coalitions. Previous empirical research, however, has repeatedly shown that minority coalitions as well as oversized coalitions are common. The traditional theory assumes the coalition formation takes place in a vacuum. This thesis suggests that the logic of the coalition formation ”game” changes when parties take into consideration previous collaborations, as well as future ambitions. Against this background, I theorise that coalition continuity and reëlections lead to larger and oversized coalition outcomes.
The study analyses coalition formation in Swedish municipalities following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections, using quantitative methodology. Several hypotheses regarding coalition continuity, coalition size, and oversized coalitions were tested against the dataset.
The results show that renewed electoral support strongly increases the likelihood of coalition continuity. Previous governing coalitions were significantly more likely to remain intact when they achieved favourable electoral outcomes. This held true even when one or more partners were rendered mathematically superfluous.
The findings suggest that coalition formation is influenced not only by maximising office positions through minimising coalitions, but also by continuity between coalition partners, established cooperation, and long-term political relationships. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9226980
- author
- Wald, Alexander LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- STVM25 20261
- year
- 2026
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- kommunfullmäktige, kommunstyre, koalitionsbildning, koalitionsbildningsteori, koalitionskontinuitet, minimal number coalition, minimal size coalition, minimal winning coalition, oversized coalitions, överdimensionerade koalitioner
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 9226980
- date added to LUP
- 2026-06-16 14:11:19
- date last changed
- 2026-06-16 14:11:19
@misc{9226980,
abstract = {{Traditional coalition formation theory suggests that parties will aim to form minimal coalitions. Previous empirical research, however, has repeatedly shown that minority coalitions as well as oversized coalitions are common. The traditional theory assumes the coalition formation takes place in a vacuum. This thesis suggests that the logic of the coalition formation ”game” changes when parties take into consideration previous collaborations, as well as future ambitions. Against this background, I theorise that coalition continuity and reëlections lead to larger and oversized coalition outcomes.
The study analyses coalition formation in Swedish municipalities following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections, using quantitative methodology. Several hypotheses regarding coalition continuity, coalition size, and oversized coalitions were tested against the dataset.
The results show that renewed electoral support strongly increases the likelihood of coalition continuity. Previous governing coalitions were significantly more likely to remain intact when they achieved favourable electoral outcomes. This held true even when one or more partners were rendered mathematically superfluous.
The findings suggest that coalition formation is influenced not only by maximising office positions through minimising coalitions, but also by continuity between coalition partners, established cooperation, and long-term political relationships.}},
author = {{Wald, Alexander}},
language = {{swe}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Minimalitet eller kontinuitet? – En kvantitativ studie av koalitionskontinuitet och minimala koalitioner i svenska kommunfullmäktigen}},
year = {{2026}},
}