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Navigating Customer Need Uncertainty in Early Stage SaaS Startups

Lisnell, Adam LU ; Wickberg, Gustav LU and Nicolson, James LU (2026) FEKH99 20261
Department of Business Administration
Abstract
Title: Navigating Customer Need Uncertainty in Early Stage SaaS Startups
Seminar date: 4 June, 2026
Course: FEKH99, Bachelor Degree Project in Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Management, Business administration, Undergraduate level, 15 University Credit Points
Authors: Adam Lisnell, Gustav Wickberg, James Nicolson
Advisor/s: Joakim Winborg
Key words: Knightian uncertainty, effectuation, customer validation, latent needs, lean startup
Research question: How do SaaS startup founders navigate uncertainty about customer needs in
early product development?
Purpose: To examine how SaaS startup founders navigate uncertainty about customer needs in early
product development, with particular focus on how founders identify, interpret and... (More)
Title: Navigating Customer Need Uncertainty in Early Stage SaaS Startups
Seminar date: 4 June, 2026
Course: FEKH99, Bachelor Degree Project in Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Management, Business administration, Undergraduate level, 15 University Credit Points
Authors: Adam Lisnell, Gustav Wickberg, James Nicolson
Advisor/s: Joakim Winborg
Key words: Knightian uncertainty, effectuation, customer validation, latent needs, lean startup
Research question: How do SaaS startup founders navigate uncertainty about customer needs in
early product development?
Purpose: To examine how SaaS startup founders navigate uncertainty about customer needs in early
product development, with particular focus on how founders identify, interpret and act upon uncertain
customer need information in situations where those needs are not yet fully formulated or known.
Methodology: A qualitative multiple case study with an abductive approach. Empirical material was
collected through semi-structured interviews with six founders across four Swedish B2B SaaS
companies in early stages of development and analysed through thematic analysis guided by the
study's theoretical framework.
Theoretical perspectives: The study integrates four theoretical perspectives: Knightian uncertainty as
the foundation for understanding genuine unpredictability, effectuation theory describing
entrepreneurial decision-making under uncertainty, the expressed-latent needs distinction and Lean
Startup methodology for customer validation. These are integrated into an integrative analytical
construct, the UAM
Result: Founders did not navigate uncertainty by running structured experiments or following a
predefined plan. Instead they started from what they already had, their own experience and networks
and let product direction emerge through ongoing customer contact. Asking customers directly what
they wanted rarely produced useful answers, because the needs founders were trying to uncover were
ones customers themselves could not yet articulate. The most valuable insights came from observation
and from the act of building itself. What customers needed also changed over time, meaning founders
had to continuously adjust how they validated rather than settling on one approach from the start.
Conclusions: Founders navigated customer need uncertainty primarily through effectual rather than
causal logic and through relational rather than experimental validation. Direct customer feedback
proved consistently insufficient because the needs at issue were largely latent and therefore
inaccessible through direct questioning. The most consequential learning arrived instead through
observation, co-creation and the act of building itself. The expressed-latent distinction operated as a
dynamic rather than fixed classification, meaning founders had to continuously renegotiate their
validation approach as needs evolved through interaction. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Lisnell, Adam LU ; Wickberg, Gustav LU and Nicolson, James LU
supervisor
organization
course
FEKH99 20261
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Knightian uncertainty, effectuation, customer validation, latent needs, lean startup
language
English
id
9245092
date added to LUP
2026-06-30 10:32:53
date last changed
2026-06-30 10:32:53
@misc{9245092,
  abstract     = {{Title: Navigating Customer Need Uncertainty in Early Stage SaaS Startups
Seminar date: 4 June, 2026
Course: FEKH99, Bachelor Degree Project in Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Management, Business administration, Undergraduate level, 15 University Credit Points
Authors: Adam Lisnell, Gustav Wickberg, James Nicolson
Advisor/s: Joakim Winborg
Key words: Knightian uncertainty, effectuation, customer validation, latent needs, lean startup
Research question: How do SaaS startup founders navigate uncertainty about customer needs in
early product development?
Purpose: To examine how SaaS startup founders navigate uncertainty about customer needs in early
product development, with particular focus on how founders identify, interpret and act upon uncertain
customer need information in situations where those needs are not yet fully formulated or known.
Methodology: A qualitative multiple case study with an abductive approach. Empirical material was
collected through semi-structured interviews with six founders across four Swedish B2B SaaS
companies in early stages of development and analysed through thematic analysis guided by the
study's theoretical framework.
Theoretical perspectives: The study integrates four theoretical perspectives: Knightian uncertainty as
the foundation for understanding genuine unpredictability, effectuation theory describing
entrepreneurial decision-making under uncertainty, the expressed-latent needs distinction and Lean
Startup methodology for customer validation. These are integrated into an integrative analytical
construct, the UAM
Result: Founders did not navigate uncertainty by running structured experiments or following a
predefined plan. Instead they started from what they already had, their own experience and networks
and let product direction emerge through ongoing customer contact. Asking customers directly what
they wanted rarely produced useful answers, because the needs founders were trying to uncover were
ones customers themselves could not yet articulate. The most valuable insights came from observation
and from the act of building itself. What customers needed also changed over time, meaning founders
had to continuously adjust how they validated rather than settling on one approach from the start.
Conclusions: Founders navigated customer need uncertainty primarily through effectual rather than
causal logic and through relational rather than experimental validation. Direct customer feedback
proved consistently insufficient because the needs at issue were largely latent and therefore
inaccessible through direct questioning. The most consequential learning arrived instead through
observation, co-creation and the act of building itself. The expressed-latent distinction operated as a
dynamic rather than fixed classification, meaning founders had to continuously renegotiate their
validation approach as needs evolved through interaction.}},
  author       = {{Lisnell, Adam and Wickberg, Gustav and Nicolson, James}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Navigating Customer Need Uncertainty in Early Stage SaaS Startups}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}