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Krig eller Fred: Kritiska punkter på maktcykeln och risken för krig mellan stormakter

Hurtig, Martin LU (2011) STVM01 20112
Department of Political Science
Abstract
For a few years’ time, there have been those who say that American power is declining relatively to its counterparts on the major power arena. According to Power Cycle Theory the probability of major war is highest when a major power is close to a critical point. In this paper I am testing the proposition made by the power cycle theory, that the probability of a major war is higher in a critical period than it is during a normal period. The relative capabilities of the major powers are estimated with Correlates Of War (COW) data during the interval 1816-2007. The timing of the critical points on each countries power cycle is then compared with the occurrence of war between major powers. The result supports the theory’s assumption that war... (More)
For a few years’ time, there have been those who say that American power is declining relatively to its counterparts on the major power arena. According to Power Cycle Theory the probability of major war is highest when a major power is close to a critical point. In this paper I am testing the proposition made by the power cycle theory, that the probability of a major war is higher in a critical period than it is during a normal period. The relative capabilities of the major powers are estimated with Correlates Of War (COW) data during the interval 1816-2007. The timing of the critical points on each countries power cycle is then compared with the occurrence of war between major powers. The result supports the theory’s assumption that war is more likely to occur during a critical point than it is otherwise. With the future in mind, we should be aware of the increased risk of conflict as both USA and China are moving towards a critical point. (Less)
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author
Hurtig, Martin LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVM01 20112
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Power Cycle Theory, War, Major Powers, Measuring National Power
language
Swedish
id
2199059
date added to LUP
2011-12-07 09:48:12
date last changed
2011-12-07 09:48:12
@misc{2199059,
  abstract     = {For a few years’ time, there have been those who say that American power is declining relatively to its counterparts on the major power arena. According to Power Cycle Theory the probability of major war is highest when a major power is close to a critical point. In this paper I am testing the proposition made by the power cycle theory, that the probability of a major war is higher in a critical period than it is during a normal period. The relative capabilities of the major powers are estimated with Correlates Of War (COW) data during the interval 1816-2007. The timing of the critical points on each countries power cycle is then compared with the occurrence of war between major powers. The result supports the theory’s assumption that war is more likely to occur during a critical point than it is otherwise. With the future in mind, we should be aware of the increased risk of conflict as both USA and China are moving towards a critical point.},
  author       = {Hurtig, Martin},
  keyword      = {Power Cycle Theory,War,Major Powers,Measuring National Power},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Krig eller Fred: Kritiska punkter på maktcykeln och risken för krig mellan stormakter},
  year         = {2011},
}