Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Damping in the Nordic Power System
(2015) In IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 30(1). p.306-315- Abstract
- This paper presents an application of multiple linear regression (MLR) to extract significant correlations between damping of electromechanical modes and system operating conditions and to forecast future damping values, based on existing day-ahead market forecasts for power flows and generation. The presented analysis uses measurements from the Nordic power system. First, a static MLR model is developed to explain the variability of the damping of the 0.35-Hz inter-area mode in the Nordic system. Together with the static model, a dynamic MLR model is used for forecasting the damping 24 hours ahead, using day-ahead market forecasts. Test results indicate the proposed methods are able to correctly predict about 90% of the low damped... (More)
- This paper presents an application of multiple linear regression (MLR) to extract significant correlations between damping of electromechanical modes and system operating conditions and to forecast future damping values, based on existing day-ahead market forecasts for power flows and generation. The presented analysis uses measurements from the Nordic power system. First, a static MLR model is developed to explain the variability of the damping of the 0.35-Hz inter-area mode in the Nordic system. Together with the static model, a dynamic MLR model is used for forecasting the damping 24 hours ahead, using day-ahead market forecasts. Test results indicate the proposed methods are able to correctly predict about 90% of the low damped operating conditions observed during a year, if day-ahead market forecasts are accurate. These results suggest that the methods could be used to issue early warnings about future operating conditions with low damping. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5085197
- author
- Sulla, Francesco LU ; Koivisto, Matti ; Seppanen, Janne ; Turunen, Jukka ; Haarla, Liisa C. and Samuelsson, Olof LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2015
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Damping forecast, electromechanical oscillations, multiple linear, regression (MLR), phasor measurement unit (PMU) data
- in
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
- volume
- 30
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 306 - 315
- publisher
- IEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000346734000029
- scopus:84919915290
- ISSN
- 0885-8950
- DOI
- 10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2329489
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- d41ecd1c-dd8f-4133-8874-03f6b9aa3956 (old id 5085197)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 14:12:12
- date last changed
- 2022-03-29 19:45:37
@article{d41ecd1c-dd8f-4133-8874-03f6b9aa3956, abstract = {{This paper presents an application of multiple linear regression (MLR) to extract significant correlations between damping of electromechanical modes and system operating conditions and to forecast future damping values, based on existing day-ahead market forecasts for power flows and generation. The presented analysis uses measurements from the Nordic power system. First, a static MLR model is developed to explain the variability of the damping of the 0.35-Hz inter-area mode in the Nordic system. Together with the static model, a dynamic MLR model is used for forecasting the damping 24 hours ahead, using day-ahead market forecasts. Test results indicate the proposed methods are able to correctly predict about 90% of the low damped operating conditions observed during a year, if day-ahead market forecasts are accurate. These results suggest that the methods could be used to issue early warnings about future operating conditions with low damping.}}, author = {{Sulla, Francesco and Koivisto, Matti and Seppanen, Janne and Turunen, Jukka and Haarla, Liisa C. and Samuelsson, Olof}}, issn = {{0885-8950}}, keywords = {{Damping forecast; electromechanical oscillations; multiple linear; regression (MLR); phasor measurement unit (PMU) data}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{1}}, pages = {{306--315}}, publisher = {{IEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.}}, series = {{IEEE Transactions on Power Systems}}, title = {{Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Damping in the Nordic Power System}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2329489}}, doi = {{10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2329489}}, volume = {{30}}, year = {{2015}}, }