A Process for Improved Decision-Support based on Probabilistic Methods for Risk Analysis and Building Energy Performance
(2019) 2020 Building Performance Analysis Conference & SimBuild- Abstract
- This paper presents a preliminary method developed for improved decision-support based on probabilistic methods for risk assessment using building performance simulations. The aim of the method is to support the decision-maker in all stages of the building process when deciding on the design of a building by including uncertainties and quantifying; the probability of fulfilling objectives; energy performance; economic consequences; and risk level. The results are then used in a comparative study of alternative building designs. The method was tested in a case study by evaluating two alternative designs based on 15 stochastic parameters using 1000 simulations for each design-alternative. Calculated values were compared to measured data... (More)
- This paper presents a preliminary method developed for improved decision-support based on probabilistic methods for risk assessment using building performance simulations. The aim of the method is to support the decision-maker in all stages of the building process when deciding on the design of a building by including uncertainties and quantifying; the probability of fulfilling objectives; energy performance; economic consequences; and risk level. The results are then used in a comparative study of alternative building designs. The method was tested in a case study by evaluating two alternative designs based on 15 stochastic parameters using 1000 simulations for each design-alternative. Calculated values were compared to measured data from 26 identical single-family passive houses. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/84ed9114-2c78-4caa-8089-cd01a9a21ede
- author
- Ekström, Tomas LU ; Harderup, Lars-Erik LU ; Arfvidsson, Jesper LU and Burke, Stephen LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2019
- type
- Contribution to conference
- publication status
- submitted
- subject
- conference name
- 2020 Building Performance Analysis Conference & SimBuild
- conference location
- Chicago, United States
- conference dates
- 2020-08-12 - 2020-08-14
- project
- Predicting the Energy Performance of Buildings - A Method using Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Data-driven Decision-support
- language
- Swedish
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 84ed9114-2c78-4caa-8089-cd01a9a21ede
- date added to LUP
- 2020-01-27 13:48:53
- date last changed
- 2021-03-22 21:05:54
@misc{84ed9114-2c78-4caa-8089-cd01a9a21ede,
abstract = {{This paper presents a preliminary method developed for improved decision-support based on probabilistic methods for risk assessment using building performance simulations. The aim of the method is to support the decision-maker in all stages of the building process when deciding on the design of a building by including uncertainties and quantifying; the probability of fulfilling objectives; energy performance; economic consequences; and risk level. The results are then used in a comparative study of alternative building designs. The method was tested in a case study by evaluating two alternative designs based on 15 stochastic parameters using 1000 simulations for each design-alternative. Calculated values were compared to measured data from 26 identical single-family passive houses.}},
author = {{Ekström, Tomas and Harderup, Lars-Erik and Arfvidsson, Jesper and Burke, Stephen}},
language = {{swe}},
title = {{A Process for Improved Decision-Support based on Probabilistic Methods for Risk Analysis and Building Energy Performance}},
year = {{2019}},
}