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Warming Drives Large-Scale Shifts in Post-Disturbance Vegetation Dynamics and Expansion of Deciduous Trees in the Boreal Forest in a Dynamic Vegetation Model

Layritz, L. S. ; Anand, M. ; Kim, J. E. ; Meyer, B. F. ; Gregor, K. ; Pugh, T. A.M. LU orcid ; Boettiger, C. ; Buras, A. and Rammig, A. (2026) In Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 131(8).
Abstract

The intensification of disturbance regimes due to climate change is a growing concern in boreal forests, yet the long-term consequences for forest recovery remain poorly understood, as boreal successional dynamics unfold over a century or longer and exceed the length of available observational records. To overcome this research gap we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to investigate future climate change impacts on boreal successional dynamics over the 21st and 22nd centuries. We first confirm that LPJ-GUESS reproduces historic patterns of post-disturbance recovery. We then show that under future warming, deciduous transients become more frequent, longer, and more pronounced due to a temperature-mediated shift in competitive... (More)

The intensification of disturbance regimes due to climate change is a growing concern in boreal forests, yet the long-term consequences for forest recovery remain poorly understood, as boreal successional dynamics unfold over a century or longer and exceed the length of available observational records. To overcome this research gap we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to investigate future climate change impacts on boreal successional dynamics over the 21st and 22nd centuries. We first confirm that LPJ-GUESS reproduces historic patterns of post-disturbance recovery. We then show that under future warming, deciduous transients become more frequent, longer, and more pronounced due to a temperature-mediated shift in competitive balance emerging in LPJ-GUESS. Using a random forest framework, we find that the long-term recovery pathway can be predicted with 90% accuracy from vegetation and environmental conditions in the first decade after disturbance alone. This supports the hypothesis that the changes in post-disturbance recruitment currently observed in boreal forests are an indicator of more long-lasting changes in vegetation composition in the future. While we find no evidence for permanent shifts toward deciduous tree cover in LPJ-GUESS, the combination of prolonged deciduous transients and more frequent disturbances makes an increase in deciduous tree cover a likely future scenario.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
boreal, climate change, ecology, post-fire, resilience, vegetation model
in
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
volume
131
issue
8
article number
e2025JG009176
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • scopus:105046485835
ISSN
2169-8953
DOI
10.1029/2025JG009176
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2026. The Author(s).
id
096028d3-8ff0-4e32-9998-9499f2216b8a
date added to LUP
2026-09-21 22:32:50
date last changed
2026-09-22 09:24:13
@article{096028d3-8ff0-4e32-9998-9499f2216b8a,
  abstract     = {{<p>The intensification of disturbance regimes due to climate change is a growing concern in boreal forests, yet the long-term consequences for forest recovery remain poorly understood, as boreal successional dynamics unfold over a century or longer and exceed the length of available observational records. To overcome this research gap we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to investigate future climate change impacts on boreal successional dynamics over the 21st and 22nd centuries. We first confirm that LPJ-GUESS reproduces historic patterns of post-disturbance recovery. We then show that under future warming, deciduous transients become more frequent, longer, and more pronounced due to a temperature-mediated shift in competitive balance emerging in LPJ-GUESS. Using a random forest framework, we find that the long-term recovery pathway can be predicted with 90% accuracy from vegetation and environmental conditions in the first decade after disturbance alone. This supports the hypothesis that the changes in post-disturbance recruitment currently observed in boreal forests are an indicator of more long-lasting changes in vegetation composition in the future. While we find no evidence for permanent shifts toward deciduous tree cover in LPJ-GUESS, the combination of prolonged deciduous transients and more frequent disturbances makes an increase in deciduous tree cover a likely future scenario.</p>}},
  author       = {{Layritz, L. S. and Anand, M. and Kim, J. E. and Meyer, B. F. and Gregor, K. and Pugh, T. A.M. and Boettiger, C. and Buras, A. and Rammig, A.}},
  issn         = {{2169-8953}},
  keywords     = {{boreal; climate change; ecology; post-fire; resilience; vegetation model}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{8}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences}},
  title        = {{Warming Drives Large-Scale Shifts in Post-Disturbance Vegetation Dynamics and Expansion of Deciduous Trees in the Boreal Forest in a Dynamic Vegetation Model}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009176}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2025JG009176}},
  volume       = {{131}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}