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Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures

Nasr, Amro LU ; Kjellström, Erik ; Larsson Ivanov, Oskar LU ; Johansson, Jonas LU ; Björnsson, Ivar LU and Honfi, Daniel (2021) 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2022 p.1318-1325
Abstract
Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two... (More)
Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling. (Less)
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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)
pages
1318 - 1325
publisher
Research Publishing, Singapore
conference name
31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2022
conference location
Angers, France
conference dates
2021-09-19 - 2021-09-23
external identifiers
  • scopus:85118279175
ISBN
978-981-18-2016-8
DOI
10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_539-cd
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
50e12e4e-1d69-44ab-a78c-ae58be4c9a4c
date added to LUP
2022-08-19 09:23:27
date last changed
2022-08-22 12:45:04
@inproceedings{50e12e4e-1d69-44ab-a78c-ae58be4c9a4c,
  abstract     = {{Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling.}},
  author       = {{Nasr, Amro and Kjellström, Erik and Larsson Ivanov, Oskar and Johansson, Jonas and Björnsson, Ivar and Honfi, Daniel}},
  booktitle    = {{Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)}},
  isbn         = {{978-981-18-2016-8}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{1318--1325}},
  publisher    = {{Research Publishing, Singapore}},
  title        = {{Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/122863263/539.pdf}},
  doi          = {{10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_539-cd}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}