Decision making with unreliable probabilities
(1983) In British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology 36(2). p.240-251- Abstract
- This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/7752958
- author
- Gärdenfors, Peter LU and Sahlin, Nils-Eric LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 1983
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology
- volume
- 36
- issue
- 2
- pages
- 240 - 251
- publisher
- The British Psychological Society
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85004844272
- ISSN
- 0007-1102
- DOI
- 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 2c3b428b-eb8f-48c3-a4af-afff6dea25e0 (old id 7752958)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 17:13:08
- date last changed
- 2021-09-19 05:54:41
@article{2c3b428b-eb8f-48c3-a4af-afff6dea25e0, abstract = {{This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.}}, author = {{Gärdenfors, Peter and Sahlin, Nils-Eric}}, issn = {{0007-1102}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{2}}, pages = {{240--251}}, publisher = {{The British Psychological Society}}, series = {{British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology}}, title = {{Decision making with unreliable probabilities}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x}}, doi = {{10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x}}, volume = {{36}}, year = {{1983}}, }