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Long-term implications of climate change and forest management for ecosystem services and ecosystem functioning : Exploring the decision-making space in Swedish production forests

Bergkvist, John LU orcid (2024)
Abstract
Climate change is expected to affect temperate and boreal forests, potentially causing profound changes to the functioning and the structure of ecosystems. This calls for assessments of the plausible long-term outcomes of a range of climate change scenarios to increase the knowledge base for decision making in forestry. Forest owners need to consider whether current silvicultural management practices remain suitable also in the future. Contemporary decisions will determine the future landscape composition of production forests and have implications for the provisioning of ecosystem services.
In this thesis, we analysed the varying preferences for maintaining ecosystem services among a sample of non-industrial private forest owners in... (More)
Climate change is expected to affect temperate and boreal forests, potentially causing profound changes to the functioning and the structure of ecosystems. This calls for assessments of the plausible long-term outcomes of a range of climate change scenarios to increase the knowledge base for decision making in forestry. Forest owners need to consider whether current silvicultural management practices remain suitable also in the future. Contemporary decisions will determine the future landscape composition of production forests and have implications for the provisioning of ecosystem services.
In this thesis, we analysed the varying preferences for maintaining ecosystem services among a sample of non-industrial private forest owners in Sweden. The findings demonstrated positive perceptions of 10 forest ecosystem services, with the highest rankings of biodiversity, timber quality, water quality and recreation. Differences in prioritization between ecosystem services largely depended on whether the owners were certified and if they were members of a forest owner association. These findings also revealed a consistent and broad agreement regarding a preferred expansion of mixed-species and deciduous stands in the landscapes, in line with current recommendations for climate change adaptation.

The process-based ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS was evaluated to determine its skill in simulating managed production forests in Sweden through comparisons of model projections of standing volume against observations derived from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. New vegetation parameters were suggested for Norway spruce and Scots pine, which better represented observed growth rates in even-aged monocultures. Additionally, the evaluations provided insight into potential model improvements, specifically regarding the early phase of stand growth.

The evaluated model was applied to study the long-term outcomes of altered management practices and climate change on forests in Sweden. Three alternative future trajectories of landscape development were visualized as changes in forest policy. In the first policy scenario current management practices were maintained, whereas the second emphasized risk-spreading and adaptation, and the third a transitioning towards conservation-focused practices with reduced management intensity. The simulations projected consistent increases in net primary productivity towards the end of the 21st century that were of greater magnitude in the higher emission scenarios, and with the largest changes occurring in northern Sweden in all three policies. The increases were mediated by higher N mineralization in combination with increased water use efficiency, driven by higher air temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The model indicated consistent increases in storm damage vulnerability in central and northern Sweden, regardless of simulated forest policy. However, storm damage vulnerability was lower at the end of the century compared to in the time period 2001-2020 in the conservation-oriented policy in southern Sweden. The model results also indicated that there may be long-term benefits associated with implementing a forest policy of risk-spreading and adaptation. Compared to the scenario representing a continuation of current management practices, the risk-spreading and adaption policy provided similar or higher gains for net primary productivity, net ecosystem productivity, soil nitrogen availability, and provisioning of wood, and also showed a generally lower vulnerability of forests to storm damage in southern and central Sweden. The applied approaches were also discussed in terms of model uncertainty, which influenced the interpretation and robustness of the results.

Site-scale simulations provided additional insight into the effects of climate change on the net carbon exchange in an unmanaged set-aside forest in the southern boreal zone in Sweden. These simulations showed clear short to medium-term mitigation benefits of retaining the unmanaged set-aside stand compared to clear-felling and replanting with either Scots pine or Norway spruce. However, the model results also indicated a decrease in the net carbon sink with increased age of the unmanaged stand over the long term, where a higher climate impact led to an earlier and more pronounced loss of carbon uptake.

The findings of this thesis confirm the value of utilizing process-based models enabled with advanced representations of forest management to study long-term changes in ecosystems. It has advanced the knowledge of the implications of changing climate conditions and altered management for production forests in Sweden. (Less)
Abstract (Swedish)
Klimatförändringarna förväntas påverka skogar i de tempererade och boreala zonerna och leda till omfattande förändringar i ekosystemens struktur och funktion. Därför behövs analyser av sannolika utfall av olika scenarier av ökad klimatpåverkan på lång sikt, för att förbättra kunskapsunderlaget och stödja beslutsfattande inom skogssektorn. För skogsägare innebär klimatförändringarna ett behov att överväga om den nuvarande skogsskötseln även är lämplig i fortsättningen. Samtida skötselbeslut kommer att avgöra det framtida skogslandskapets sammansättning och påverka tillhandahållandet av ekosystemtjänster.
I denna avhandling analyserades småskaliga privata skogsägares preferenser för att bibehålla ekosystemtjänster i produktionsskogar i... (More)
Klimatförändringarna förväntas påverka skogar i de tempererade och boreala zonerna och leda till omfattande förändringar i ekosystemens struktur och funktion. Därför behövs analyser av sannolika utfall av olika scenarier av ökad klimatpåverkan på lång sikt, för att förbättra kunskapsunderlaget och stödja beslutsfattande inom skogssektorn. För skogsägare innebär klimatförändringarna ett behov att överväga om den nuvarande skogsskötseln även är lämplig i fortsättningen. Samtida skötselbeslut kommer att avgöra det framtida skogslandskapets sammansättning och påverka tillhandahållandet av ekosystemtjänster.
I denna avhandling analyserades småskaliga privata skogsägares preferenser för att bibehålla ekosystemtjänster i produktionsskogar i Sverige. Svaren indikerade generellt positiva värderingar av 10 ekosystemtjänster, med högst värdering av biodiversitet, virkeskvalitet, vattenkvalitet och rekreation. Skillnader i prioritering mellan ekosystemtjänster länkades till om skogsägaren hade certifierat sin fastighet och om hen vad medlem i en skogsägarförening. Skogsägarna visade preferenser för ökad etablering av blandskog och lövskog i landskapet, i linje med samtida rekommendationer för klimatanpassning.
I detta arbete utvärderades även den dynamiska vegetationsmodellen LPJ-GUESS. Utvärderingen syftade till att avgöra modellens kapacitet att simulera skötta produktionsskogar genom jämförelser av modellsimuleringar av stående volym mot observationer från Riksskogstaxeringen. Nya vegetationsparametrar föreslogs för gran och tall som bättre fångade observerad tillväxttakt hos trädarterna i monokulturer. Utvärderingen bidrog även till kunskap om potentiella modellförbättringar för simulering av unga bestånd.
Den utvärderade modellen applicerades sedan för att studera utfall av förändrad skogsskötsel och klimatpåverkan på produktionsskogar i Sverige. Tre scenarier av alternativa framtida förändringar i skogslandskapets sammansättning modellerades. I det första scenariot bibehölls nuvarande sammansättning av skogstyper i landskapen fram till slutet av århundradet. Det andra scenariot motsvarade en ökad fokus på riskspridning och klimatanpassning, och det tredje en gradvis övergång till mer naturnära skogsbruk och ökad skydd av skog. LPJ-GUESS föreslog en ökad nettoprimärproduktion vid slutet av århundradet i samtliga tre scenarier vid både hög och låg klimatpåverkan. Nettoprimärproduktionen ökade mer vid högre klimatpåverkan, med de största relativa förändringarna i norra Sverige.
Nettoprimärproduktionen stimulerades av en ökad kvävemineralisering till följd av en högre marktemperatur, och av en ökad vatteneffektivitet på grund av en högre koldioxidhalt i atmosfären. Modellen indikerade en ökad stormkänslighet i Svealand och i Norrland i alla tre alternativa skötselscenarier. Skogslandskapets känslighet för stormskador var lägre i slutet av århundradet jämfört med 2001-2020 i södra Sverige i scenariot med ökat fokus på naturnära skogsbruk och skydd av skog.
Riskspridnings- och klimatanpassningsscenariot gav liknande eller högre nettoprimärproduktion, kolupptag, kvävemineralisering och tillhandahållande av biomassa som scenariot som motsvarade en fortsättning av nutidens skogsbruk. Även stormkänsligheten var lägre i Götaland och i Svealand. Metoderna som användes för att nå modellresultaten diskuterades i förhållande till modellosäkerheter och antaganden, vilket påverkar tolkningen och robustheten i simuleringarna.
Simuleringar på beståndsnivå bidrog till kunskap om klimatförändringens effekt på kolupptag och utbyte i en avsatt skog i den södra boreala zonen i Sverige. Modellen indikerade en klimatnytta på kort till medellång sikt med att öka andelen avsatt skog jämfört med alternativet att avverka och återplantera granskog eller tallskog. Dock minskade kolupptaget i den avsatta skogen över tid och med ökad ålder, med en mer markant minskning av kolupptaget i ett scenario av väldigt hög klimatpåverkan.
Resultaten av denna avhandling bekräftar betydelsen av processbaserade dynamiska vegetationsmodeller med funktionalitet att simulera skogsskötsel som viktiga redskap för att studera trender över tid i ekosystem. Detta har bidragit till mer kunskap om effekterna av klimatförändringar och ändrad skogsskötsel i svenska skogar. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Assistant Professor Yousefpour, Rasoul, Institute of Forestry and Forest Conservation, John Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape, and Design, University of Toronto, CA.
organization
alternative title
Konsekvenser av klimatförändringar och skogsbruk på lång sikt för ekosystemtjänster och ekosystemens funktion : Ett utforskande av möjliga beslut i svenska produktionsskogar
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Ecosystem modelling, Boreal forest, net primary production, Ecosystem services, Non-industrial private forest owners, Ecosystem functioning, Norway spruce, Scots pine
pages
214 pages
publisher
Lund University
defense location
Pangea, Geocentrum II, 2nd floor, number 229.
defense date
2024-09-13 13:00:00
ISBN
978-91-89187-41-2
978-91-89187-42-9
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
84fc2da7-eef6-419e-9082-34b40ccf1475
date added to LUP
2024-08-08 16:36:44
date last changed
2024-08-19 14:51:19
@phdthesis{84fc2da7-eef6-419e-9082-34b40ccf1475,
  abstract     = {{Climate change is expected to affect temperate and boreal forests, potentially causing profound changes to the functioning and the structure of ecosystems. This calls for assessments of the plausible long-term outcomes of a range of climate change scenarios to increase the knowledge base for decision making in forestry. Forest owners need to consider whether current silvicultural management practices remain suitable also in the future. Contemporary decisions will determine the future landscape composition of production forests and have implications for the provisioning of ecosystem services.<br/>In this thesis, we analysed the varying preferences for maintaining ecosystem services among a sample of non-industrial private forest owners in Sweden. The findings demonstrated positive perceptions of 10 forest ecosystem services, with the highest rankings of biodiversity, timber quality, water quality and recreation. Differences in prioritization between ecosystem services largely depended on whether the owners were certified and if they were members of a forest owner association. These findings also revealed a consistent and broad agreement regarding a preferred expansion of mixed-species and deciduous stands in the landscapes, in line with current recommendations for climate change adaptation.<br/><br/>The process-based ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS was evaluated to determine its skill in simulating managed production forests in Sweden through comparisons of model projections of standing volume against observations derived from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. New vegetation parameters were suggested for Norway spruce and Scots pine, which better represented observed growth rates in even-aged monocultures. Additionally, the evaluations provided insight into potential model improvements, specifically regarding the early phase of stand growth.<br/><br/>The evaluated model was applied to study the long-term outcomes of altered management practices and climate change on forests in Sweden. Three alternative future trajectories of landscape development were visualized as changes in forest policy. In the first policy scenario current management practices were maintained, whereas the second emphasized risk-spreading and adaptation, and the third a transitioning towards conservation-focused practices with reduced management intensity. The simulations projected consistent increases in net primary productivity towards the end of the 21st century that were of greater magnitude in the higher emission scenarios, and with the largest changes occurring in northern Sweden in all three policies. The increases were mediated by higher N mineralization in combination with increased water use efficiency, driven by higher air temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The model indicated consistent increases in storm damage vulnerability in central and northern Sweden, regardless of simulated forest policy. However, storm damage vulnerability was lower at the end of the century compared to in the time period 2001-2020 in the conservation-oriented policy in southern Sweden. The model results also indicated that there may be long-term benefits associated with implementing a forest policy of risk-spreading and adaptation. Compared to the scenario representing a continuation of current management practices, the risk-spreading and adaption policy provided similar or higher gains for net primary productivity, net ecosystem productivity, soil nitrogen availability, and provisioning of wood, and also showed a generally lower vulnerability of forests to storm damage in southern and central Sweden. The applied approaches were also discussed in terms of model uncertainty, which influenced the interpretation and robustness of the results.<br/><br/>Site-scale simulations provided additional insight into the effects of climate change on the net carbon exchange in an unmanaged set-aside forest in the southern boreal zone in Sweden. These simulations showed clear short to medium-term mitigation benefits of retaining the unmanaged set-aside stand compared to clear-felling and replanting with either Scots pine or Norway spruce. However, the model results also indicated a decrease in the net carbon sink with increased age of the unmanaged stand over the long term, where a higher climate impact led to an earlier and more pronounced loss of carbon uptake.<br/><br/>The findings of this thesis confirm the value of utilizing process-based models enabled with advanced representations of forest management to study long-term changes in ecosystems. It has advanced the knowledge of the implications of changing climate conditions and altered management for production forests in Sweden.}},
  author       = {{Bergkvist, John}},
  isbn         = {{978-91-89187-41-2}},
  keywords     = {{Ecosystem modelling; Boreal forest; net primary production; Ecosystem services; Non-industrial private forest owners; Ecosystem functioning; Norway spruce; Scots pine}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  publisher    = {{Lund University}},
  school       = {{Lund University}},
  title        = {{Long-term implications of climate change and forest management for ecosystem services and ecosystem functioning : Exploring the decision-making space in Swedish production forests}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/192814391/e-spik_John_Bergkvist.pdf}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}