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Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest

Islam, Md Rafikul LU orcid ; Jönsson, Anna Maria LU ; Bergkvist, John LU orcid ; Lagergren, Fredrik LU ; Lindeskog, Mats LU ; Mölder, Meelis LU ; Scholze, Marko LU and Kljun, Natascha LU orcid (2024) In Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 349.
Abstract

Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management... (More)

Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management interventions. We found that the projected increase in temperatures (+2 to +4 °C) during the latter part of the 21st century will reduce the net C sink strength, particularly in the unmanaged forest. The standing biomass C for reforestations was projected to be 57–67 % lower in 2100 than in the old forest in 2022. The study also revealed that the C sequestration potential of replanted pine forests may surpass that of 200-years old forests in the far future (2076–2100). The study did not detect statistically significant differences in overall net C exchange between the clear-cut with subsequent reforestation options and the baseline, even though specific reforestation strategies, such as pine plantations, enhanced the overall net C sink by 7–20 % relative to the baseline during 2022–2100. These findings underscore the profound influence of forest management on the net C budget, surpassing that of climate change scenarios alone. By adopting pertinent reforestation strategies, C uptake could be augmented, with concurrently improved forest productivity, resulting in favourable outcomes for the forest's critical role in C sequestration and storage amidst a changing climate.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Carbon compensation point (CCP), Climate scenario (RCP), Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS), Norunda SE-Nor, Sweden, Process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS, Reforestation
in
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
volume
349
article number
109959
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85187335240
ISSN
0168-1923
DOI
10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959
project
Climate costs of boreal forest clear-cutting – a multiscale experiment
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s)
id
e1944efd-7ec3-4221-aadb-729ae145127a
date added to LUP
2024-03-20 21:26:59
date last changed
2024-03-22 11:15:02
@article{e1944efd-7ec3-4221-aadb-729ae145127a,
  abstract     = {{<p>Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management interventions. We found that the projected increase in temperatures (+2 to +4 °C) during the latter part of the 21st century will reduce the net C sink strength, particularly in the unmanaged forest. The standing biomass C for reforestations was projected to be 57–67 % lower in 2100 than in the old forest in 2022. The study also revealed that the C sequestration potential of replanted pine forests may surpass that of 200-years old forests in the far future (2076–2100). The study did not detect statistically significant differences in overall net C exchange between the clear-cut with subsequent reforestation options and the baseline, even though specific reforestation strategies, such as pine plantations, enhanced the overall net C sink by 7–20 % relative to the baseline during 2022–2100. These findings underscore the profound influence of forest management on the net C budget, surpassing that of climate change scenarios alone. By adopting pertinent reforestation strategies, C uptake could be augmented, with concurrently improved forest productivity, resulting in favourable outcomes for the forest's critical role in C sequestration and storage amidst a changing climate.</p>}},
  author       = {{Islam, Md Rafikul and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Bergkvist, John and Lagergren, Fredrik and Lindeskog, Mats and Mölder, Meelis and Scholze, Marko and Kljun, Natascha}},
  issn         = {{0168-1923}},
  keywords     = {{Carbon compensation point (CCP); Climate scenario (RCP); Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS); Norunda SE-Nor, Sweden; Process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS; Reforestation}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{04}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}},
  title        = {{Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959}},
  volume       = {{349}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}