Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest
(2024) In Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 349.- Abstract
Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management... (More)
Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management interventions. We found that the projected increase in temperatures (+2 to +4 °C) during the latter part of the 21st century will reduce the net C sink strength, particularly in the unmanaged forest. The standing biomass C for reforestations was projected to be 57–67 % lower in 2100 than in the old forest in 2022. The study also revealed that the C sequestration potential of replanted pine forests may surpass that of 200-years old forests in the far future (2076–2100). The study did not detect statistically significant differences in overall net C exchange between the clear-cut with subsequent reforestation options and the baseline, even though specific reforestation strategies, such as pine plantations, enhanced the overall net C sink by 7–20 % relative to the baseline during 2022–2100. These findings underscore the profound influence of forest management on the net C budget, surpassing that of climate change scenarios alone. By adopting pertinent reforestation strategies, C uptake could be augmented, with concurrently improved forest productivity, resulting in favourable outcomes for the forest's critical role in C sequestration and storage amidst a changing climate.
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- author
- Islam, Md Rafikul LU ; Jönsson, Anna Maria LU ; Bergkvist, John LU ; Lagergren, Fredrik LU ; Lindeskog, Mats LU ; Mölder, Meelis LU ; Scholze, Marko LU and Kljun, Natascha LU
- organization
-
- Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
- LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions
- Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
- ICOS Sweden
- LTH Profile Area: Aerosols
- eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- publishing date
- 2024-04-15
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Carbon compensation point (CCP), Climate scenario (RCP), Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS), Norunda SE-Nor, Sweden, Process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS, Reforestation
- in
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
- volume
- 349
- article number
- 109959
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85187335240
- ISSN
- 0168-1923
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959
- project
- Climate costs of boreal forest clear-cutting – a multiscale experiment
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s)
- id
- e1944efd-7ec3-4221-aadb-729ae145127a
- date added to LUP
- 2024-03-20 21:26:59
- date last changed
- 2024-08-09 09:29:45
@article{e1944efd-7ec3-4221-aadb-729ae145127a, abstract = {{<p>Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management interventions. We found that the projected increase in temperatures (+2 to +4 °C) during the latter part of the 21st century will reduce the net C sink strength, particularly in the unmanaged forest. The standing biomass C for reforestations was projected to be 57–67 % lower in 2100 than in the old forest in 2022. The study also revealed that the C sequestration potential of replanted pine forests may surpass that of 200-years old forests in the far future (2076–2100). The study did not detect statistically significant differences in overall net C exchange between the clear-cut with subsequent reforestation options and the baseline, even though specific reforestation strategies, such as pine plantations, enhanced the overall net C sink by 7–20 % relative to the baseline during 2022–2100. These findings underscore the profound influence of forest management on the net C budget, surpassing that of climate change scenarios alone. By adopting pertinent reforestation strategies, C uptake could be augmented, with concurrently improved forest productivity, resulting in favourable outcomes for the forest's critical role in C sequestration and storage amidst a changing climate.</p>}}, author = {{Islam, Md Rafikul and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Bergkvist, John and Lagergren, Fredrik and Lindeskog, Mats and Mölder, Meelis and Scholze, Marko and Kljun, Natascha}}, issn = {{0168-1923}}, keywords = {{Carbon compensation point (CCP); Climate scenario (RCP); Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS); Norunda SE-Nor, Sweden; Process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS; Reforestation}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{04}}, publisher = {{Elsevier}}, series = {{Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}}, title = {{Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109959}}, volume = {{349}}, year = {{2024}}, }