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Land Use and Cover or Precipitation? : Changes on Hydrological Response of the Upper Paraná River Basin

Adib Abou Rafee, Sameh LU (2020)
Abstract
The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone extensive Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) in thelatest decades, due to rapid population growth and economic development. Furthermore, variation in precipitationpatterns was observed across the basin mainly after the 1970s Climate shift. Concurrently, the UPRB has presentedsignificant changes in its hydrology. In this context, this thesis investigates the changes in precipitation and LUCCand their effects on the hydrological processes in the UPRB. The observed trends in the extreme precipitation eventsfrom 1977 to 2016 were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test. Different numerical scenarios were simulated usingthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated and... (More)
The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone extensive Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) in thelatest decades, due to rapid population growth and economic development. Furthermore, variation in precipitationpatterns was observed across the basin mainly after the 1970s Climate shift. Concurrently, the UPRB has presentedsignificant changes in its hydrology. In this context, this thesis investigates the changes in precipitation and LUCCand their effects on the hydrological processes in the UPRB. The observed trends in the extreme precipitation eventsfrom 1977 to 2016 were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test. Different numerical scenarios were simulated usingthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated and validated with a satisfactoryperformance for the main rivers during the period 1984 – 2015 considering the Land Use and Cover (LUC) from2015. The results revealed that the southern (northern) parts of the basin presented increasing (decreasing) trendsin precipitation amounts. Besides, the southern regions of the UPRB presented an increase in the number ofrainstorms > 50 mm/day and annual greatest 5-day total precipitation, while the northern part an increase in thenumber of consecutive dry days. The results also suggest that the basin is exposed to a longer rainy season. Bycomparing the LUC between 1985 and 2015, the numerical simulations showed that the natural vegetationsuppression caused significant changes in basin hydrology. For instance, an increase (decrease) of surface runoffin the wet (dry) season at most UPRB subbasins, was observed. In addition, the simulations revealed a reductionin actual evapotranspiration and an increase in soil moisture in the annual and wet season. Consequently, the majorrivers of the basin presented an increase (decrease) in their discharge in the wet (dry) period. This study alsoaddressed the comparison between the LUC from a pristine period (around the year 1500), 1960 and 1985, andchanges in precipitation before and after the 1970s Climate shift. In this case, the results showed that the 1970sClimate shift event has a higher effect on the changes in average annual discharge at the river mouth of the UPRB.This research improves the understanding of the effects of LUCC and changes in precipitation patterns on thehydrology across the UPRB. The results from this thesis will hopefully provide insights in improving sustainablemanagement of water resources. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Prof. Xu, Chong-Yu, University of Oslo, Norway.
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
pages
101 pages
publisher
Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund Institute of Technology, Lund University
defense location
Lecture hall V:B, building V, John Ericssons väg 1, Faculty of Engineering LTH, Lund University, Lund.
defense date
2020-10-09 13:00:00
external identifiers
  • scopus:85087372541
ISBN
978-91-7895-625-8
978-91-7895-624-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
9e431aec-7957-4ea2-9aa3-a1aa4b6c59e9
date added to LUP
2020-09-12 02:03:12
date last changed
2024-06-12 21:48:15
@phdthesis{9e431aec-7957-4ea2-9aa3-a1aa4b6c59e9,
  abstract     = {{The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone extensive Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) in thelatest decades, due to rapid population growth and economic development. Furthermore, variation in precipitationpatterns was observed across the basin mainly after the 1970s Climate shift. Concurrently, the UPRB has presentedsignificant changes in its hydrology. In this context, this thesis investigates the changes in precipitation and LUCCand their effects on the hydrological processes in the UPRB. The observed trends in the extreme precipitation eventsfrom 1977 to 2016 were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test. Different numerical scenarios were simulated usingthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated and validated with a satisfactoryperformance for the main rivers during the period 1984 – 2015 considering the Land Use and Cover (LUC) from2015. The results revealed that the southern (northern) parts of the basin presented increasing (decreasing) trendsin precipitation amounts. Besides, the southern regions of the UPRB presented an increase in the number ofrainstorms > 50 mm/day and annual greatest 5-day total precipitation, while the northern part an increase in thenumber of consecutive dry days. The results also suggest that the basin is exposed to a longer rainy season. Bycomparing the LUC between 1985 and 2015, the numerical simulations showed that the natural vegetationsuppression caused significant changes in basin hydrology. For instance, an increase (decrease) of surface runoffin the wet (dry) season at most UPRB subbasins, was observed. In addition, the simulations revealed a reductionin actual evapotranspiration and an increase in soil moisture in the annual and wet season. Consequently, the majorrivers of the basin presented an increase (decrease) in their discharge in the wet (dry) period. This study alsoaddressed the comparison between the LUC from a pristine period (around the year 1500), 1960 and 1985, andchanges in precipitation before and after the 1970s Climate shift. In this case, the results showed that the 1970sClimate shift event has a higher effect on the changes in average annual discharge at the river mouth of the UPRB.This research improves the understanding of the effects of LUCC and changes in precipitation patterns on thehydrology across the UPRB. The results from this thesis will hopefully provide insights in improving sustainablemanagement of water resources.}},
  author       = {{Adib Abou Rafee, Sameh}},
  isbn         = {{978-91-7895-625-8}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{09}},
  publisher    = {{Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund Institute of Technology, Lund University}},
  school       = {{Lund University}},
  title        = {{Land Use and Cover or Precipitation? : Changes on Hydrological Response of the Upper Paraná River Basin}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/85241831/Abou_Rafee_Thesis_2020.pdf}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}