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Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Vicente‑Serrano, Sergio M. ; Juez, Carmelo ; Potopová, Vera ; Boincean, Boris ; Murphy, Conor ; Domínguez-Castro, Fernando ; Eklundh, Lars LU orcid ; Peña-Angulo, Dhais ; Noguera, Ivan and Jin, Hongxiao LU , et al. (2024) In Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1538(1). p.144-161
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation... (More)
This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
climate change, crop yields, global warming, Republic of Moldova
in
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
volume
1538
issue
1
article number
15201
pages
18 pages
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • pmid:39086254
  • scopus:85200038647
ISSN
0077-8923
DOI
10.1111/nyas.15201
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a15c6b07-9c21-4b1d-9060-0917119b4913
date added to LUP
2024-10-15 09:56:52
date last changed
2025-04-04 14:06:57
@article{a15c6b07-9c21-4b1d-9060-0917119b4913,
  abstract     = {{This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.}},
  author       = {{Vicente‑Serrano, Sergio M. and Juez, Carmelo and Potopová, Vera and Boincean, Boris and Murphy, Conor and Domínguez-Castro, Fernando and Eklundh, Lars and Peña-Angulo, Dhais and Noguera, Ivan and Jin, Hongxiao and Conradt, Tobias and Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo and Garrido-Perez, Jose Manuel and Barriopedro, David and Gutiérrez, José María and Iturbide, Maialen and Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge and Kenawy, Ahmed El}},
  issn         = {{0077-8923}},
  keywords     = {{climate change; crop yields; global warming; Republic of Moldova}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{144--161}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}},
  title        = {{Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15201}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/nyas.15201}},
  volume       = {{1538}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}