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What the history of (new) jobs can tell us about the impact of technological change on employment

Skoglund, William LU ; Molinder, Jakob LU and Enflo, Kerstin LU orcid (2026) In Lund Papers in Economic History
Abstract
There is currently widespread concern that rapid technological change will funda-
mentally change the nature of work. In this paper we show that, despite 140 years of
technological change, more than 70 percent of employment today is located in occu-
pations whose core economic functions already existed in the late nineteenth century.
Full-count Swedish census and administrative data from 1880 to 2019, harmonized
to five-digit HISCO, let us observe how many people work in each occupation. This
yields far greater occupational persistence than when new work is inferred from the
appearance of new job titles. To characterize the new work that does emerge, we dis-
tinguish Schumpeterian occupations, tied directly... (More)
There is currently widespread concern that rapid technological change will funda-
mentally change the nature of work. In this paper we show that, despite 140 years of
technological change, more than 70 percent of employment today is located in occu-
pations whose core economic functions already existed in the late nineteenth century.
Full-count Swedish census and administrative data from 1880 to 2019, harmonized
to five-digit HISCO, let us observe how many people work in each occupation. This
yields far greater occupational persistence than when new work is inferred from the
appearance of new job titles. To characterize the new work that does emerge, we dis-
tinguish Schumpeterian occupations, tied directly to new technology, from Smithian
occupations, arising from a deeper division of labor. Most new work is Smithian.
Schumpeterian occupations, on the other hand, remain small and unstable, with an
increasingly older workforce, and it is specialization, not technology or newness, that
commands the largest earnings premium. Technology sustains employment less by ex-
panding technological occupations than by creating the scale on which specialization
depends. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Working paper/Preprint
publication status
published
subject
keywords
New work, occupational structure, technological change, division of labor, HISCO: long-run labor markets, J16, J21, J24, N33, N34, O33
in
Lund Papers in Economic History
issue
2026:273
pages
51 pages
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c686636e-c363-4509-bf08-b0c259189f49
date added to LUP
2026-09-18 15:18:16
date last changed
2026-09-18 15:18:16
@misc{c686636e-c363-4509-bf08-b0c259189f49,
  abstract     = {{There is currently widespread concern that rapid technological change will funda-<br/>mentally change the nature of work. In this paper we show that, despite 140 years of<br/>technological change, more than 70 percent of employment today is located in occu-<br/>pations whose core economic functions already existed in the late nineteenth century.<br/>Full-count Swedish census and administrative data from 1880 to 2019, harmonized<br/>to five-digit HISCO, let us observe how many people work in each occupation. This<br/>yields far greater occupational persistence than when new work is inferred from the<br/>appearance of new job titles. To characterize the new work that does emerge, we dis-<br/>tinguish Schumpeterian occupations, tied directly to new technology, from Smithian<br/>occupations, arising from a deeper division of labor. Most new work is Smithian.<br/>Schumpeterian occupations, on the other hand, remain small and unstable, with an<br/>increasingly older workforce, and it is specialization, not technology or newness, that<br/>commands the largest earnings premium. Technology sustains employment less by ex-<br/>panding technological occupations than by creating the scale on which specialization<br/>depends.}},
  author       = {{Skoglund, William and Molinder, Jakob and Enflo, Kerstin}},
  keywords     = {{New work; occupational structure; technological change; division of labor; HISCO: long-run labor markets; J16; J21; J24; N33; N34; O33}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{09}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{2026:273}},
  series       = {{Lund Papers in Economic History}},
  title        = {{What the history of (new) jobs can tell us about the impact of technological change on employment}},
  url          = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/261080691/LUPEH_273.pdf}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}