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Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses

Morales-Castilla, Ignacio ; de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki García ; Cook, Benjamin I. ; Lacombe, Thierry ; Parker, Amber ; van Leeuwen, Cornelis ; Nicholas, Kimberly A. LU orcid and Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. (2020) In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117(6). p.2864-2869
Abstract

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly... (More)

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 ◦C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 ◦C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Agriculture, Agrobiodiversity, Climate change adaptation, Phenology, Resilience
in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
volume
117
issue
6
pages
6 pages
publisher
National Academy of Sciences
external identifiers
  • scopus:85079319405
  • pmid:31988113
ISSN
0027-8424
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1906731117
project
Wine and Climate: Impacts and Adaptation
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0ede7bc0-b4c4-42b6-a0ff-97f771603487
date added to LUP
2020-02-20 13:46:31
date last changed
2024-06-13 12:02:01
@article{0ede7bc0-b4c4-42b6-a0ff-97f771603487,
  abstract     = {{<p>Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 <sup>◦</sup>C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 <sup>◦</sup>C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.</p>}},
  author       = {{Morales-Castilla, Ignacio and de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki García and Cook, Benjamin I. and Lacombe, Thierry and Parker, Amber and van Leeuwen, Cornelis and Nicholas, Kimberly A. and Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.}},
  issn         = {{0027-8424}},
  keywords     = {{Agriculture; Agrobiodiversity; Climate change adaptation; Phenology; Resilience}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{02}},
  number       = {{6}},
  pages        = {{2864--2869}},
  publisher    = {{National Academy of Sciences}},
  series       = {{Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}},
  title        = {{Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1906731117}},
  doi          = {{10.1073/pnas.1906731117}},
  volume       = {{117}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}