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Stroke incidence and survival in the beginning of the 21st century in southern Sweden: comparisons with the late 20th century and projections into the future.

Hallström, Björn LU ; Jönsson, Ann-Cathrin LU ; Nerbrand, Christina LU ; Norrving, Bo LU and Lindgren, Arne LU (2008) In Stroke: a journal of cerebral circulation 39(1). p.10-15
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We report trends of stroke incidence and survival up to year 2001/2002 in Lund-Orup, Sweden, and projections of future stroke incidence in Sweden. METHODS: Lund Stroke Register, a prospective population-based study, included all first-ever stroke patients, between March 1, 2001 and February 28, 2002, in the Lund-Orup health care district. Institution-based studies for 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 were used for comparison. We calculated age-standardized incidence and Cox proportional hazards analysis of survival (stroke subtype, sex, age group, and study period in the analysis). Minimum follow-up was 46 months. Based on our register's stroke incidence and the official Swedish population projection, a projection for... (More)
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We report trends of stroke incidence and survival up to year 2001/2002 in Lund-Orup, Sweden, and projections of future stroke incidence in Sweden. METHODS: Lund Stroke Register, a prospective population-based study, included all first-ever stroke patients, between March 1, 2001 and February 28, 2002, in the Lund-Orup health care district. Institution-based studies for 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 were used for comparison. We calculated age-standardized incidence and Cox proportional hazards analysis of survival (stroke subtype, sex, age group, and study period in the analysis). Minimum follow-up was 46 months. Based on our register's stroke incidence and the official Swedish population projection, a projection for future stroke incidence on a national basis was calculated. RESULTS: We included 456 patients with first-ever stroke in 2001/2002. The age-standardized incidence (to the European population) was 144 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI 130 to 158) in 2001/2002, 158 (95%CI 149 to 168) in 1993 to 1995, and 134 (95%CI 126 to 143) in 1983 to 1985. Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated decreased risk of death after stroke in 2001/2002 (hazard ratio 0.80; 95%CI 0.67 to 0.94) compared with 1993 to 1995. Up to year 2050, the annual number of new stroke patients in Sweden may increase by 59% based solely on demographic changes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite possible underestimation of stroke incidence during the previous institution-based studies, the increased stroke incidence between 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 did not continue in 2001/2002. The long-term survival after stroke continues to improve. As the elderly population is growing in Sweden, stable incidence and increasing survival will result in a rapidly increasing prevalence of stroke patients in Sweden. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
survival, stroke, projection, epidemiology, incidence, population-based, case-fatality
in
Stroke: a journal of cerebral circulation
volume
39
issue
1
pages
10 - 15
publisher
American Heart Association
external identifiers
  • pmid:18063825
  • wos:000251924600005
  • scopus:38149042130
ISSN
1524-4628
DOI
10.1161/STROKEAHA.107.491779
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f56e12fb-f1bb-4e8e-ba22-fca0bcb5a3cb (old id 1035544)
date added to LUP
2008-04-01 12:57:39
date last changed
2017-07-09 04:04:59
@article{f56e12fb-f1bb-4e8e-ba22-fca0bcb5a3cb,
  abstract     = {BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We report trends of stroke incidence and survival up to year 2001/2002 in Lund-Orup, Sweden, and projections of future stroke incidence in Sweden. METHODS: Lund Stroke Register, a prospective population-based study, included all first-ever stroke patients, between March 1, 2001 and February 28, 2002, in the Lund-Orup health care district. Institution-based studies for 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 were used for comparison. We calculated age-standardized incidence and Cox proportional hazards analysis of survival (stroke subtype, sex, age group, and study period in the analysis). Minimum follow-up was 46 months. Based on our register's stroke incidence and the official Swedish population projection, a projection for future stroke incidence on a national basis was calculated. RESULTS: We included 456 patients with first-ever stroke in 2001/2002. The age-standardized incidence (to the European population) was 144 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI 130 to 158) in 2001/2002, 158 (95%CI 149 to 168) in 1993 to 1995, and 134 (95%CI 126 to 143) in 1983 to 1985. Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated decreased risk of death after stroke in 2001/2002 (hazard ratio 0.80; 95%CI 0.67 to 0.94) compared with 1993 to 1995. Up to year 2050, the annual number of new stroke patients in Sweden may increase by 59% based solely on demographic changes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite possible underestimation of stroke incidence during the previous institution-based studies, the increased stroke incidence between 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 did not continue in 2001/2002. The long-term survival after stroke continues to improve. As the elderly population is growing in Sweden, stable incidence and increasing survival will result in a rapidly increasing prevalence of stroke patients in Sweden.},
  author       = {Hallström, Björn and Jönsson, Ann-Cathrin and Nerbrand, Christina and Norrving, Bo and Lindgren, Arne},
  issn         = {1524-4628},
  keyword      = {survival,stroke,projection,epidemiology,incidence,population-based,case-fatality},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {10--15},
  publisher    = {American Heart Association},
  series       = { Stroke: a journal of cerebral circulation},
  title        = {Stroke incidence and survival in the beginning of the 21st century in southern Sweden: comparisons with the late 20th century and projections into the future.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/STROKEAHA.107.491779},
  volume       = {39},
  year         = {2008},
}