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Climate patterns and the stochastic dynamics of migratory birds

Jonzén, Niclas LU ; Hedenström, Anders LU ; Hjort, Christian LU ; Lindström, Åke LU ; Lundberg, Per LU and Andersson, A (2002) In Oikos 97(3). p.329-336
Abstract
We analyse time series data of 17 bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden, during spring migration 1972-1999. The species have similar demography but respond differently to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - a strong determinant of winter climate in the northern Hemisphere. Species wintering in northern Europe, compared to species having winter quarters in the Mediterranean area, tend to respond positively to variation in NAO. The variation within each group is high due to wide-ranging winter-distribution in many species, probably smoothing out the effect of spatial variation in NAO. Whereas mild winters (high NAO) are benign for many - but not all - birds wintering in northern Europe, the effect of... (More)
We analyse time series data of 17 bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden, during spring migration 1972-1999. The species have similar demography but respond differently to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - a strong determinant of winter climate in the northern Hemisphere. Species wintering in northern Europe, compared to species having winter quarters in the Mediterranean area, tend to respond positively to variation in NAO. The variation within each group is high due to wide-ranging winter-distribution in many species, probably smoothing out the effect of spatial variation in NAO. Whereas mild winters (high NAO) are benign for many - but not all - birds wintering in northern Europe, the effect of drier-than-normal conditions in the Mediterranean area during high NAO index winters is uncertain. The work presented here goes beyond simple correlative studies and help identifying which species that are most affected by variation in winter climate. This is a first important step that calls for a more mechanistic approach when analysing possible changes to climate change. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Oikos
volume
97
issue
3
pages
329 - 336
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000177002200003
  • scopus:0036068512
ISSN
1600-0706
DOI
10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.970303.x
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a06b2dfa-bbf3-4288-932d-109ad0b21d8d (old id 145549)
date added to LUP
2007-06-25 08:57:08
date last changed
2017-01-01 05:00:07
@article{a06b2dfa-bbf3-4288-932d-109ad0b21d8d,
  abstract     = {We analyse time series data of 17 bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden, during spring migration 1972-1999. The species have similar demography but respond differently to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - a strong determinant of winter climate in the northern Hemisphere. Species wintering in northern Europe, compared to species having winter quarters in the Mediterranean area, tend to respond positively to variation in NAO. The variation within each group is high due to wide-ranging winter-distribution in many species, probably smoothing out the effect of spatial variation in NAO. Whereas mild winters (high NAO) are benign for many - but not all - birds wintering in northern Europe, the effect of drier-than-normal conditions in the Mediterranean area during high NAO index winters is uncertain. The work presented here goes beyond simple correlative studies and help identifying which species that are most affected by variation in winter climate. This is a first important step that calls for a more mechanistic approach when analysing possible changes to climate change.},
  author       = {Jonzén, Niclas and Hedenström, Anders and Hjort, Christian and Lindström, Åke and Lundberg, Per and Andersson, A},
  issn         = {1600-0706},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {329--336},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Oikos},
  title        = {Climate patterns and the stochastic dynamics of migratory birds},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.970303.x},
  volume       = {97},
  year         = {2002},
}