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Gastrointestinal complications after cardiac surgery - improved risk stratification using a new scoring model.

Andersson, Bodil LU ; Andersson, Roland LU ; Brandt, Johan LU ; Höglund, Peter LU ; Algotsson, Lars LU and Nilsson, Johan LU (2009) In Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery
Abstract
Gastrointestinal (GI) complications are serious consequences of cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to develop, evaluate and validate a new risk score model for GI complications after cardiac surgery. The risk score model, named gastrointestinal complication score (GICS), was developed using prospectively collected data from 5593 patients who underwent 5636 cardiac surgical procedures between 1996 and 2001. The model was validated on 1031 cardiac surgery patients between 2005 and 2006. The scoring system's ability to predict GI complications was estimated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Fifty GI complications were identified in 47 patients (0.8%) in the developmental data set and eight... (More)
Gastrointestinal (GI) complications are serious consequences of cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to develop, evaluate and validate a new risk score model for GI complications after cardiac surgery. The risk score model, named gastrointestinal complication score (GICS), was developed using prospectively collected data from 5593 patients who underwent 5636 cardiac surgical procedures between 1996 and 2001. The model was validated on 1031 cardiac surgery patients between 2005 and 2006. The scoring system's ability to predict GI complications was estimated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Fifty GI complications were identified in 47 patients (0.8%) in the developmental data set and eight (0.8%) in the validation data set. The ROC area in the developmental data set was 0.81 with a good calibration estimated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.89). In the validation data set, the area under the curve was 0.83. The estimated probability for the patient to develop a GI complication after cardiac surgery at a GICS >/=15 is >20% and at a GICS </=5 is <0.4%. Risk stratification according to GICS, specifically developed to predict GI complications after cardiac surgery, showed a good predictive ability. Keywords: Gastrointestinal; Risk factors; Complication; Cardiac surgery. (Less)
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author
organization
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
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in
Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery
publisher
European Association of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery
external identifiers
  • pmid:19995792
  • scopus:77649323331
ISSN
1569-9285
DOI
10.1510/icvts.2009.219113
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
84a5b9a5-f8dd-4d3c-bbc4-25e6c44cb5a9 (old id 1523779)
alternative location
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19995792?dopt=Abstract
date added to LUP
2010-01-14 13:03:09
date last changed
2017-08-20 04:35:32
@article{84a5b9a5-f8dd-4d3c-bbc4-25e6c44cb5a9,
  abstract     = {Gastrointestinal (GI) complications are serious consequences of cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to develop, evaluate and validate a new risk score model for GI complications after cardiac surgery. The risk score model, named gastrointestinal complication score (GICS), was developed using prospectively collected data from 5593 patients who underwent 5636 cardiac surgical procedures between 1996 and 2001. The model was validated on 1031 cardiac surgery patients between 2005 and 2006. The scoring system's ability to predict GI complications was estimated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Fifty GI complications were identified in 47 patients (0.8%) in the developmental data set and eight (0.8%) in the validation data set. The ROC area in the developmental data set was 0.81 with a good calibration estimated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.89). In the validation data set, the area under the curve was 0.83. The estimated probability for the patient to develop a GI complication after cardiac surgery at a GICS &gt;/=15 is &gt;20% and at a GICS &lt;/=5 is &lt;0.4%. Risk stratification according to GICS, specifically developed to predict GI complications after cardiac surgery, showed a good predictive ability. Keywords: Gastrointestinal; Risk factors; Complication; Cardiac surgery.},
  author       = {Andersson, Bodil and Andersson, Roland and Brandt, Johan and Höglund, Peter and Algotsson, Lars and Nilsson, Johan},
  issn         = {1569-9285},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {12},
  publisher    = {European Association of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery},
  series       = {Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery},
  title        = {Gastrointestinal complications after cardiac surgery - improved risk stratification using a new scoring model.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1510/icvts.2009.219113},
  year         = {2009},
}