A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19
(2022) In European Journal of Public Health 32(5). p.799-806- Abstract
BACKGROUND: This paper investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July, 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household.
METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96,053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21,804) and confirmed cases (n = 48,984)-to estimate the effects of the... (More)
BACKGROUND: This paper investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July, 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household.
METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96,053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21,804) and confirmed cases (n = 48,984)-to estimate the effects of the policy.
RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year-threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1,800 to 2,700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification.
CONCLUSION: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Online appendix with figures, tables, extra methods and results.
(Less)
- author
- author collaboration
- organization
-
- Infection Medicine (BMC)
- EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health
- Social Medicine and Global Health (research group)
- EPI@LUND (research group)
- eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
- Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology (research group)
- EXODIAB: Excellence of Diabetes Research in Sweden
- Diabetic Complications (research group)
- Surgery and public health (research group)
- publishing date
- 2022-08-13
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- European Journal of Public Health
- volume
- 32
- issue
- 5
- pages
- 799 - 806
- publisher
- Oxford University Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85154543075
- pmid:35962987
- ISSN
- 1101-1262
- DOI
- 10.1093/eurpub/ckac101
- project
- Improved preparedness for future pandemics and other health crises through large-scale disease surveillance
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.
- id
- 161d38a4-ee00-4950-9262-6dc3c0942894
- date added to LUP
- 2022-09-21 13:24:29
- date last changed
- 2024-04-19 20:52:01
@article{161d38a4-ee00-4950-9262-6dc3c0942894, abstract = {{<p>BACKGROUND: This paper investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July, 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household.</p><p>METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96,053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21,804) and confirmed cases (n = 48,984)-to estimate the effects of the policy.</p><p>RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year-threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1,800 to 2,700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification.</p><p>CONCLUSION: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.</p><p>SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Online appendix with figures, tables, extra methods and results.</p>}}, author = {{Bonander, Carl and Stranges, Debora and Gustavsson, Johanna and Almgren, Matilda and Inghammar, Malin and Moghaddassi, Mahnaz and Nilsson, Anton and Pujol, Joan Capdevila and Steves, Claire and Franks, Paul W and Gomez, Maria F and Fall, Tove and Björk, Jonas}}, issn = {{1101-1262}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{08}}, number = {{5}}, pages = {{799--806}}, publisher = {{Oxford University Press}}, series = {{European Journal of Public Health}}, title = {{A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckac101}}, doi = {{10.1093/eurpub/ckac101}}, volume = {{32}}, year = {{2022}}, }