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A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19

Bonander, Carl ; Stranges, Debora ; Gustavsson, Johanna ; Almgren, Matilda LU ; Inghammar, Malin LU ; Moghaddassi, Mahnaz LU ; Nilsson, Anton LU ; Pujol, Joan Capdevila ; Steves, Claire and Franks, Paul W LU , et al. (2022) In European Journal of Public Health 32(5). p.799-806
Abstract

BACKGROUND: This paper investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July, 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household.

METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96,053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21,804) and confirmed cases (n = 48,984)-to estimate the effects of the... (More)

BACKGROUND: This paper investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July, 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household.

METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96,053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21,804) and confirmed cases (n = 48,984)-to estimate the effects of the policy.

RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year-threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1,800 to 2,700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification.

CONCLUSION: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Online appendix with figures, tables, extra methods and results.

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author collaboration
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
European Journal of Public Health
volume
32
issue
5
pages
799 - 806
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85154543075
  • pmid:35962987
ISSN
1101-1262
DOI
10.1093/eurpub/ckac101
project
Improved preparedness for future pandemics and other health crises through large-scale disease surveillance
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.
id
161d38a4-ee00-4950-9262-6dc3c0942894
date added to LUP
2022-09-21 13:24:29
date last changed
2024-04-19 20:52:01
@article{161d38a4-ee00-4950-9262-6dc3c0942894,
  abstract     = {{<p>BACKGROUND: This paper investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviors and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July, 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household.</p><p>METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design-in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96,053; age range: 39-79 years) and national register data (age range: 39-100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21,804) and confirmed cases (n = 48,984)-to estimate the effects of the policy.</p><p>RESULTS: Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (-13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (-16%) at the 70-year-threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1,800 to 2,700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification.</p><p>CONCLUSION: It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.</p><p>SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Online appendix with figures, tables, extra methods and results.</p>}},
  author       = {{Bonander, Carl and Stranges, Debora and Gustavsson, Johanna and Almgren, Matilda and Inghammar, Malin and Moghaddassi, Mahnaz and Nilsson, Anton and Pujol, Joan Capdevila and Steves, Claire and Franks, Paul W and Gomez, Maria F and Fall, Tove and Björk, Jonas}},
  issn         = {{1101-1262}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  number       = {{5}},
  pages        = {{799--806}},
  publisher    = {{Oxford University Press}},
  series       = {{European Journal of Public Health}},
  title        = {{A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckac101}},
  doi          = {{10.1093/eurpub/ckac101}},
  volume       = {{32}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}