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Why residual emissions matter right now

Buck, Holly Jean ; Carton, Wim LU orcid ; Lund, Jens Friis and Markusson, Nils (2023) In Nature Climate Change 13(4). p.351-358
Abstract
Net-zero targets imply that continuing residual emissions will be balanced by carbon dioxide removal. However, residual emissions are typically not well defined, conceptually or quantitatively. We analysed governments’ long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC to explore projections of residual emissions, including amounts and sectors. We found substantial levels of residual emissions at net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, on average 18% of current emissions for Annex I countries. The majority of strategies were imprecise about which sectors residual emissions would originate from, and few offered specific projections of how residual emissions could be balanced by carbon removal. Our findings indicate the need for a consistent definition... (More)
Net-zero targets imply that continuing residual emissions will be balanced by carbon dioxide removal. However, residual emissions are typically not well defined, conceptually or quantitatively. We analysed governments’ long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC to explore projections of residual emissions, including amounts and sectors. We found substantial levels of residual emissions at net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, on average 18% of current emissions for Annex I countries. The majority of strategies were imprecise about which sectors residual emissions would originate from, and few offered specific projections of how residual emissions could be balanced by carbon removal. Our findings indicate the need for a consistent definition of residual emissions, as well as processes that standardize and compare expectations about residual emissions across countries. This is necessary for two reasons: to avoid projections of excessive residuals and correspondent unsustainable or unfeasible carbon-removal levels and to send clearer signals about the temporality of fossil fuel use. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Climate Change
volume
13
issue
4
pages
351 - 358
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85149472732
ISSN
1758-6798
DOI
10.1038/s41558-022-01592-2
project
Tradeoffs between negative emissions and near-term emission reductions?: Integrating the discursive and material dimensions of mitigation deterrence
Negative emissions and the politics of a projected future: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), political economy, and the responsibilisation of climate research
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
1b05bc99-ef69-4799-8c73-7b0a93b333ec
alternative location
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01592-2
date added to LUP
2023-01-11 13:55:08
date last changed
2023-10-26 14:54:25
@article{1b05bc99-ef69-4799-8c73-7b0a93b333ec,
  abstract     = {{Net-zero targets imply that continuing residual emissions will be balanced by carbon dioxide removal. However, residual emissions are typically not well defined, conceptually or quantitatively. We analysed governments’ long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC to explore projections of residual emissions, including amounts and sectors. We found substantial levels of residual emissions at net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, on average 18% of current emissions for Annex I countries. The majority of strategies were imprecise about which sectors residual emissions would originate from, and few offered specific projections of how residual emissions could be balanced by carbon removal. Our findings indicate the need for a consistent definition of residual emissions, as well as processes that standardize and compare expectations about residual emissions across countries. This is necessary for two reasons: to avoid projections of excessive residuals and correspondent unsustainable or unfeasible carbon-removal levels and to send clearer signals about the temporality of fossil fuel use.}},
  author       = {{Buck, Holly Jean and Carton, Wim and Lund, Jens Friis and Markusson, Nils}},
  issn         = {{1758-6798}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{03}},
  number       = {{4}},
  pages        = {{351--358}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Climate Change}},
  title        = {{Why residual emissions matter right now}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01592-2}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41558-022-01592-2}},
  volume       = {{13}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}