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A model for stochastic drift in memory strength to account for judgments of learning

Sikström, Sverker LU and Jonsson, F (2005) In Psychological Review 112(4). p.932-950
Abstract
Previous research has shown that judgments of learning (JOLs) made immediately after encoding have a low correlation with actual cued-recall performance, whereas the correlation is high for delayed,judgments. In this article, the authors propose a formal theory describing the stochastic drift of memory strength over the retention interval to account for the delayed-JOL effect. This is done by first decomposing the aggregated memory strength into exponential functions with slow and fast memory traces. The mean aggregated memory strength shows power-function forgetting curves. The drift of the memory strength is large for immediate JOLs (causing a low predictability) and weak for delayed JOLs (causing a high predictability). Consistent with... (More)
Previous research has shown that judgments of learning (JOLs) made immediately after encoding have a low correlation with actual cued-recall performance, whereas the correlation is high for delayed,judgments. In this article, the authors propose a formal theory describing the stochastic drift of memory strength over the retention interval to account for the delayed-JOL effect. This is done by first decomposing the aggregated memory strength into exponential functions with slow and fast memory traces. The mean aggregated memory strength shows power-function forgetting curves. The drift of the memory strength is large for immediate JOLs (causing a low predictability) and weak for delayed JOLs (causing a high predictability). Consistent with empirical data, the model makes a novel prediction of JOL asymmetry, or that immediate weak JOLs are more predictive of future performance than are immediate strong JOLs. The JOL distributions for immediate and delayed JOLs are also accounted for. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
metamemory, judgments of learning, model, stochastic drift
in
Psychological Review
volume
112
issue
4
pages
932 - 950
publisher
AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC/EDUCATIONAL PUBLISHING FOUNDATION
external identifiers
  • wos:000233222000009
  • pmid:16262474
  • scopus:27944483811
ISSN
0033-295X
DOI
10.1037/0033-295X.112.4.932
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
17daf8ee-dd9f-4a27-b2e2-212bb577a3a2 (old id 212543)
date added to LUP
2007-08-06 09:16:27
date last changed
2017-01-01 06:42:07
@article{17daf8ee-dd9f-4a27-b2e2-212bb577a3a2,
  abstract     = {Previous research has shown that judgments of learning (JOLs) made immediately after encoding have a low correlation with actual cued-recall performance, whereas the correlation is high for delayed,judgments. In this article, the authors propose a formal theory describing the stochastic drift of memory strength over the retention interval to account for the delayed-JOL effect. This is done by first decomposing the aggregated memory strength into exponential functions with slow and fast memory traces. The mean aggregated memory strength shows power-function forgetting curves. The drift of the memory strength is large for immediate JOLs (causing a low predictability) and weak for delayed JOLs (causing a high predictability). Consistent with empirical data, the model makes a novel prediction of JOL asymmetry, or that immediate weak JOLs are more predictive of future performance than are immediate strong JOLs. The JOL distributions for immediate and delayed JOLs are also accounted for.},
  author       = {Sikström, Sverker and Jonsson, F},
  issn         = {0033-295X},
  keyword      = {metamemory,judgments of learning,model,stochastic drift},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {932--950},
  publisher    = {AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC/EDUCATIONAL PUBLISHING FOUNDATION},
  series       = {Psychological Review},
  title        = {A model for stochastic drift in memory strength to account for judgments of learning},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.112.4.932},
  volume       = {112},
  year         = {2005},
}