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Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

Soderholm, Patrik; Hildingsson, Roger LU ; Johansson, Bengt LU ; Khan, Jamil LU and Wilhelmsson, Fredrik LU (2011) In Futures 43(10). p.1105-1116
Abstract
There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries' emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a)... (More)
There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries' emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Energy scenarios, Low-carbon society, Transition governance
in
Futures
volume
43
issue
10
pages
1105 - 1116
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000297037000007
  • scopus:80052930515
ISSN
0016-3287
DOI
10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.009
project
Governing transitions towards Low-Carbon Energy and Transport Systems for 2050
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fd1ae055-e08d-4623-ac3e-600c87da0964 (old id 2252931)
date added to LUP
2011-12-22 09:34:38
date last changed
2017-11-05 04:11:54
@article{fd1ae055-e08d-4623-ac3e-600c87da0964,
  abstract     = {There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries' emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Soderholm, Patrik and Hildingsson, Roger and Johansson, Bengt and Khan, Jamil and Wilhelmsson, Fredrik},
  issn         = {0016-3287},
  keyword      = {Energy scenarios,Low-carbon society,Transition governance},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {10},
  pages        = {1105--1116},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Futures},
  title        = {Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.009},
  volume       = {43},
  year         = {2011},
}