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Decision making with unreliable probabilities

Gärdenfors, Peter LU and Sahlin, Nils-Eric LU (1983) In British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology 36(2). p.240-251
Abstract
This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology
volume
36
issue
2
pages
240 - 251
publisher
The British Psychological Society
external identifiers
  • scopus:85004844272
ISSN
0007-1102
DOI
10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2c3b428b-eb8f-48c3-a4af-afff6dea25e0 (old id 7752958)
date added to LUP
2015-08-10 11:48:20
date last changed
2017-04-23 04:32:08
@article{2c3b428b-eb8f-48c3-a4af-afff6dea25e0,
  abstract     = {This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.},
  author       = {Gärdenfors, Peter and Sahlin, Nils-Eric},
  issn         = {0007-1102},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {240--251},
  publisher    = {The British Psychological Society},
  series       = {British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology},
  title        = {Decision making with unreliable probabilities},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x},
  volume       = {36},
  year         = {1983},
}