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Explaining the cyclic behavior of freight transport CO2-emissions in Sweden over time

Eng Larsson, Fredrik LU ; Lundquist, Karl-Johan LU ; Olander, Lars-Olof LU and Wandel, Sten LU (2012) In Transport Policy 23. p.79-87
Abstract
Economic growth is often considered to be the main factor behind, and tightly coupled to, the increase in freight transport work and its energy use. Recent research has quantified the relative contribution from underlying factors like value density of products, transport intensity and carbon intensity of fuel. In this work we rely on the theory of economic growth cycles in order to explain the dynamic behavior of some of these indicators. Focusing on the current growth cycle, we analyze Swedish data in a Shapley decomposition model, and the behaviors of the underlying factors are confronted against the growth cycle theory and recent findings in micro logistics. Our results suggests that the different and changing relations between growth... (More)
Economic growth is often considered to be the main factor behind, and tightly coupled to, the increase in freight transport work and its energy use. Recent research has quantified the relative contribution from underlying factors like value density of products, transport intensity and carbon intensity of fuel. In this work we rely on the theory of economic growth cycles in order to explain the dynamic behavior of some of these indicators. Focusing on the current growth cycle, we analyze Swedish data in a Shapley decomposition model, and the behaviors of the underlying factors are confronted against the growth cycle theory and recent findings in micro logistics. Our results suggests that the different and changing relations between growth and emission over the growth cycle indicate that the observed development in emissions is far from linear and cannot be explained straightforwardly by economic growth. The impact of the respective factor, and the relation between them, changes over time and results in different degrees of decoupling. The general trend is that micro-oriented factors tend to be more important in the rationalization period while macro-oriented factors have a stronger impact during the transformation period. We suggest that our approach might be useful not only for analyzing historical data, but also for medium-term and long-term scenarios for freight transport development and CO2- emissions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Freight transport emissions, Growth cycles, Decomposition, Macro-logistics
in
Transport Policy
volume
23
pages
79 - 87
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000307914800010
  • scopus:84863764342
ISSN
1879-310X
DOI
10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.05.014
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
7bb5ed60-d7a3-41b1-9398-b1e414a04ffa (old id 3147092)
date added to LUP
2012-11-16 09:22:23
date last changed
2017-01-01 03:16:51
@article{7bb5ed60-d7a3-41b1-9398-b1e414a04ffa,
  abstract     = {Economic growth is often considered to be the main factor behind, and tightly coupled to, the increase in freight transport work and its energy use. Recent research has quantified the relative contribution from underlying factors like value density of products, transport intensity and carbon intensity of fuel. In this work we rely on the theory of economic growth cycles in order to explain the dynamic behavior of some of these indicators. Focusing on the current growth cycle, we analyze Swedish data in a Shapley decomposition model, and the behaviors of the underlying factors are confronted against the growth cycle theory and recent findings in micro logistics. Our results suggests that the different and changing relations between growth and emission over the growth cycle indicate that the observed development in emissions is far from linear and cannot be explained straightforwardly by economic growth. The impact of the respective factor, and the relation between them, changes over time and results in different degrees of decoupling. The general trend is that micro-oriented factors tend to be more important in the rationalization period while macro-oriented factors have a stronger impact during the transformation period. We suggest that our approach might be useful not only for analyzing historical data, but also for medium-term and long-term scenarios for freight transport development and CO2- emissions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Eng Larsson, Fredrik and Lundquist, Karl-Johan and Olander, Lars-Olof and Wandel, Sten},
  issn         = {1879-310X},
  keyword      = {Freight transport emissions,Growth cycles,Decomposition,Macro-logistics},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {79--87},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Transport Policy},
  title        = {Explaining the cyclic behavior of freight transport CO2-emissions in Sweden over time},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.05.014},
  volume       = {23},
  year         = {2012},
}