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Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden — A prospective observational study

Jonsson, M. H. LU ; Bentzer, P. LU ; Turkiewicz, A. LU and Hommel, A. LU (2018) In Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica 62(8). p.1057-1063
Abstract

Background: Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group. Methods: This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out-of-hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under... (More)

Background: Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group. Methods: This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out-of-hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC). Results: The 30-day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P-POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30-day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60-0.67. Conclusion: The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
hip fractures, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity, Portsmouth POSSUM
in
Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica
volume
62
issue
8
pages
7 pages
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:85051170477
ISSN
0001-5172
DOI
10.1111/aas.13131
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
332e8f9e-f0c2-4031-bd8f-a983c62d2fa5
date added to LUP
2018-09-07 12:00:02
date last changed
2018-10-14 04:49:30
@article{332e8f9e-f0c2-4031-bd8f-a983c62d2fa5,
  abstract     = {<p>Background: Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group. Methods: This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out-of-hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC). Results: The 30-day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P-POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30-day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60-0.67. Conclusion: The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.</p>},
  author       = {Jonsson, M. H. and Bentzer, P. and Turkiewicz, A. and Hommel, A.},
  issn         = {0001-5172},
  keyword      = {hip fractures,Nottingham Hip Fracture Score,Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity,Portsmouth POSSUM},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {09},
  number       = {8},
  pages        = {1057--1063},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica},
  title        = {Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden — A prospective observational study},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/aas.13131},
  volume       = {62},
  year         = {2018},
}