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Seeking No War, Achieving No Peace : The Conflict over the Siachen Glacier

Andersson, Tommy LU and Mukherjee, Conan LU (2019) In Defence and Peace Economics
Abstract

This paper models ‘no war, no peace’ situations in a game theoretical framework where two countries are engaged in a standoff over a military sector. The first main objective is to identify rational grounds for such situations and, more precisely, for the explicit equilibria that lead to such situations. It is demonstrated that both countries gain the same payoff from being in this continuous state of perpetual hostility and, moreover, that ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be explained only if the countries perceive an equal measure of military advantage from controlling the area. Given this insight, the second objective of the paper is to provide insights about how ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be resolved. Two different pathways... (More)

This paper models ‘no war, no peace’ situations in a game theoretical framework where two countries are engaged in a standoff over a military sector. The first main objective is to identify rational grounds for such situations and, more precisely, for the explicit equilibria that lead to such situations. It is demonstrated that both countries gain the same payoff from being in this continuous state of perpetual hostility and, moreover, that ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be explained only if the countries perceive an equal measure of military advantage from controlling the area. Given this insight, the second objective of the paper is to provide insights about how ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be resolved. Two different pathways are suggested. The first is idealistic and based on mutual trust, whereas the second is based on deterrence, involving both countries imposing a threat of using armed force against the other country in their respective military doctrines.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Game theory, infinite horizon game, Siachen conflict, stationary strategies, ‘no war - no peace’
in
Defence and Peace Economics
external identifiers
  • scopus:85071489604
ISSN
1024-2694
DOI
10.1080/10242694.2019.1660839
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4a45fdf5-26b0-4d53-b22f-baa35c9f77d7
date added to LUP
2019-09-27 09:47:52
date last changed
2020-01-13 02:25:13
@article{4a45fdf5-26b0-4d53-b22f-baa35c9f77d7,
  abstract     = {<p>This paper models ‘no war, no peace’ situations in a game theoretical framework where two countries are engaged in a standoff over a military sector. The first main objective is to identify rational grounds for such situations and, more precisely, for the explicit equilibria that lead to such situations. It is demonstrated that both countries gain the same payoff from being in this continuous state of perpetual hostility and, moreover, that ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be explained only if the countries perceive an equal measure of military advantage from controlling the area. Given this insight, the second objective of the paper is to provide insights about how ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be resolved. Two different pathways are suggested. The first is idealistic and based on mutual trust, whereas the second is based on deterrence, involving both countries imposing a threat of using armed force against the other country in their respective military doctrines.</p>},
  author       = {Andersson, Tommy and Mukherjee, Conan},
  issn         = {1024-2694},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {08},
  series       = {Defence and Peace Economics},
  title        = {Seeking No War, Achieving No Peace : The Conflict over the Siachen Glacier},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2019.1660839},
  doi          = {10.1080/10242694.2019.1660839},
  year         = {2019},
}