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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Naghavi, Mohsen; Wang, Haidong; Lozano, Rafael; Davis, Adrian; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abdalla, Safa and Abd-Allah, Foad, et al. (2015) In The Lancet 385(9963). p.117-171
Abstract
Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration... (More)
Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. (Less)
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@article{42a84d27-8b74-4a37-895f-c850b41f652b,
  abstract     = {Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.},
  author       = {Naghavi, Mohsen and Wang, Haidong and Lozano, Rafael and Davis, Adrian and Liang, Xiaofeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Vollset, Stein Emil and Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu and Abdalla, Safa and Abd-Allah, Foad and Aziz, Muna I. Abdel and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Aboyans, Victor and Abraham, Biju and Abraham, Jerry P. and Abuabara, Katrina E. and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Abu-Raddad, Laith J. and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Ademi, Zanfi Na and Adofo, Koranteng and Adou, Arsene Kouablan and Adsuar, Jose C. and Aernlov, Johan and Agardh, Emilie Elisabet and Akena, Dickens and Al Khabouri, Mazin J. and Alasfoor, Deena and Albittar, Mohammed and Alegretti, Miguel Angel and Aleman, Alicia V. and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael and Alhabib, Samia and Ali, Mohammed K. and Ali, Raghib and Alla, Francois and Al Lami, Faris and Allebeck, Peter and AlMazroa, Mohammad A. and Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi and Alsharif, Ubai and Alvarez, Elena and Alviz-Guzman, Nelson and Amankwaa, Adansi A. and Amare, Azmeraw T. and Ameli, Omid and Amini, Hassan and Ammar, Walid and Anderson, H. Ross and Anderson, Benjamin O. and Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. and Anwari, Palwasha and Apfel, Henry and Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu and Arsenijevic, Valentina S. Arsic and Artaman, Al and Asad, Majed Masoud and Asghar, Rana J. and Assadi, Reza and Atkins, Lydia S. and Atkinson, Charles and Badawi, Alaa and Bahit, Maria C. and Bakfalouni, Talal and Balakrishnan, Kalpana and Balalla, Shivanthi and Banerjee, Amitava and Barber, Ryan M. and Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. and Barquera, Simon and Barregard, Lars and Barrero, Lope H. and Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh and Basu, Arindam and Basu, Sanjay and Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar and Beardsley, Justin and Bedi, Neeraj and Beghi, Ettore and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L. and Benjet, Corina and Bennett, Derrick A. and Bensenor, Isabela M. and Benzian, Habib and Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia and Beyene, Tariku Jibat and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhalla, Ashish and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. and Bikbov, Boris and Bin Abdulhak, Aref and Biryukov, Stan and Blore, Jed D. and Blyth, Fiona M. and Bohensky, Megan A. and Borges, Guilherme and Bose, Dipan and Boufous, Soufiane and Bourne, Rupert R. and Boyers, Lindsay N. and Brainin, Michael and Brauer, Michael and Brayne, Carol E. G. and Brazinova, Alexandra and Breitborde, Nicholas and Brenner, Hermann and Briggs, Adam D. M. and Brown, Jonathan C. and Brugha, Traolach S. and Buckle, Geoffrey C. and Bui, Linh Ngoc and Bukhman, Gene and Burch, Michael and Nonato, Ismael Ricardo Campos and Carabin, Helesne and Cardenas, Rosario and Carapetis, Jonathan and Carpenter, David O. and Caso, Valeria and Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. and Castro, Ruben Estanislao and Catala-Lopez, Ferrn and Cavalleri, Fiorella and Chang, Jung-Chen and Charlson, Fiona C. and Che, Xuan and Chen, Honglei and Chen, Yingyao and Chen, Jian Sheng and Chen, Zhengming and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christensen, Hanne and Christophi, Costas A. and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Chugh, Sumeet S. and Cirillo, Massimo and Coates, Matthew M. and Coffeng, Luc Edgar and Coggeshall, Megan S. and Cohen, Aaron and Colistro, Valentina and Colquhoun, Samantha M. and Colomar, Mercedes and Cooper, Leslie Trumbull and Cooper, Cyrus and Coppola, Luis M. and Cortinovis, Monica and Courville, Karen and Cowie, Benjamin C. and Criqui, Michael H. and Crump, John A. and Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia and Leite, Iuri da Costa and Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C. and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Dansereau, Emily and Dargan, Paul I. and Dayama, Anand and De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa and de la Vega, Shelley F. and De Leo, Diego and Degenhardt, Louisa and del Pozo-Cruz, Borja and Dellavalle, Robert P. and Deribe, Kebede and Jarlais, Don C. Des and Dessalegn, Muluken and deVeber, Gabrielle A. and Dharmaratne, Samath D. and Dherani, Mukesh and Diaz-Ortega, Jose-Luis and Diaz-Torne, Cesar and Dicker, Daniel and Ding, Eric L. and Dokova, Klara and Dorsey, E. Ray and Driscoll, Tim R. and Duan, Leilei and Duber, Herbert C. and Durrani, Adnan M. and Ebel, Beth E. and Edmond, Karen M. and Ellenbogen, Richard G. and Elshrek, Yousef and Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich and Erskine, Holly E. and Eshrati, Babak and Esteghamati, Alireza and Estep, Kara and Fuerst, Thomas and Fahimi, Saman and Fahrion, Anna S. and Faraon, Emerito Jose A. and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fay, Derek F. J. and Feigl, Andrea B. and Feigin, Valery L. and Felicio, Manuela Mendonca and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fernandes, Jefferson G. and Ferrari, Alize J. and Fleming, Thomas D. and Foigt, Nataliya and Foreman, Kyle and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. and Fowkes, F. Gerry R. and Fra Paleo, Urbano and Franklin, Richard C. and Futran, Neal D. and Gaffikin, Lynne and Gambashidze, Ketevan and Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho and Garcia-Guerra, Francisco Armando and Garcia, Ana Cristina and Geleijnse, Johanna M. and Gessner, Bradford D. and Gibney, Katherine B. and Gillum, Richard F. and Gilmour, Stuart and Abdelmageem, Ibrahim and Ginawi, Mohamed and Giroud, Maurice and Glaser, Elizabeth L. and Goenka, Shifalika and Dantes, Hector Gomez and Gona, Philimon and Gonzalez-Medina, Diego and Guinovart, Caterina and Gupta, Rahul and Gupta, Rajeev and Gosselin, Richard A. and Gotay, Carolyn C. and Goto, Atsushi and Gowda, Hube N. and Graetz, Nicholas and Greenwell, K. Fern and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gunnell, David and Gutierrez, Reyna A. and Haagsma, Juanita and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hagan, Holly and Hagstromer, Maria and Halasa, Yara A. and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hamavid, Hannah and Hammami, Mouhanad and Hancock, Jamie and Hankey, Graeme J. and Hansen, Gillian M. and Harb, Hilda L. and Harewood, Heather and Haro, Josep Maria and Havmoeller, Rasmus and Hay, Roderick J. and Hay, Simon I. and Hedayati, Mohammad T. and Pi, Ileana B. Heredia and Heuton, Kyle R. and Heydarpour, Pouria and Higashi, Hideki and Hijar, Martha and Hoek, Hans W. and Hoffman, Howard J. and Hornberger, John C. and Hosgood, H. Dean and Hossain, Mazeda and Hotez, Peter J. and Hoy, Damian G. and Hsairi, Mohamed and Hu, Guoqing and Huang, John J. and Huffman, Mark D. and Hughes, Andrew J. and Husseini, Abdullatif and Huynh, Chantal and Iannarone, Marissa and Iburg, Kim M. and Idrisov, Bulat T. and Ikeda, Nayu and Innos, Kaire and Inoue, Manami and Islami, Farhad and Ismayilova, Samaya and Jacobsen, Kathryn H. and Jassal, Simerjot and Jayaraman, Sudha P. and Jensen, Paul N. and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jiang, Ying and Jonas, Jost B. and Joseph, Jonathan and Juel, Knud and Kabagambe, Edmond Kato and Kan, Haidong and Karch, Andre and Karimkhani, Chante and Karthikeyan, Ganesan and Kassebaum, Nicholas and Kaul, Anil and Kawakami, Norito and Kazanjan, Konstantin and Kazi, Dhruv S. and Kemp, Andrew H. and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Keren, Andre and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khan, Ejaz Ahmed and Khan, Gulfaraz and Khang, Young-Ho and Kieling, Christian and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M. and Kim, Daniel and Kim, Sungroul and Kivipelto, Miia and Knibbs, Luke and Knudsen, Ann Kristin and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Sowarta and Kotagal, Meera and Kravchenko, Michael A. and Krishnaswami, Sanjay and Krueger, Hans and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kuipers, Ernst J. and Bicer, Burcu Kucuk and Kulkarni, Chanda and Kulkarni, Veena S. and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B. and Kwan, Gene F. and Kyu, Hmwe and Lai, Taavi and Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lallukka, Tea and Lam, Hilton and Lan, Qing and Lansingh, Van C. and Larson, Heidi J. and Larsson, Anders and Lavados, Pablo M. and Lawrynowicz, Alicia E. B. and Leasher, Janet L. and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leigh, James and Leinsalu, Mall and Leung, Ricky and Levitz, Carly and Li, Bin and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongmei and Liddell, Chelsea and Lim, Stephen S. and de Lima, Graca Maria Ferreira and Lind, Maggie L. and Lipshultz, Steven E. and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Yang and Lloyd, Belinda K. and Lofgren, Katherine T. and Logroscino, Giancarlo and London, Stephanie J. and Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie and Lotufo, Paulo A. and Lucas, Robyn M. and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lyons, Ronan Anthony and Ma, Stefan and Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro and MacIntyre, Michael F. and Mackay, Mark T. and MacLachlan, Jennifer H. and Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos and Mahdi, Abbas A. and Majdan, Marek and Malekzadeh, Reza and Mangalam, Srikanth and Mapoma, Christopher Chabila and Marape, Marape and Marcenes, Wagner and Margono, Christopher and Marks, Guy B. and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Masci, Joseph R. and Mashal, Mohammad Taufi Q. and Masiye, Felix and Mason-Jones, Amanda J. and Matzopolous, Richard and Mayosi, Bongani M. and Mazorodze, Tasara T. and McGrath, John J. and Mckay, Abigail C. and Mckee, Martin and McLain, Abigail and Meaney, Peter A. and Mehndiratta, Man Mohan and Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola and Melaku, Yohannes Adama and Meltzer, Michele and Memish, Ziad A. and Mendoza, Walter and Mensah, George A. and Meretoja, Atte and Mhimbira, Francis A. and Miller, Ted R. and Mills, Edward J. and Misganaw, Awoke and Mishra, Santosh K. and Mock, Charles N. and Moffitt, Terrie E. and Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mokdad, Ali H. and Mola, Glen Liddell and Monasta, Lorenzo and Monis, Jonathan de la Cruz and Hernandez, Julio C. Montaez and Montico, Marcella and Montine, Thomas J. and Mooney, Meghan D. and Moore, Ami R. and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moran, Andrew E. and Mori, Rintaro and Moschandreas, Joanna and Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora and Moyer, Madeline L. and Mozaffarian, Dariush and Mueller, Ulrich O. and Mukaigawara, Mitsuru and Mullany, Erin C. and Murray, Joseph and Mustapha, Adetoun and Naghavi, Paria and Naheed, Aliya and Naidoo, Kovin S. and Naldi, Luigi and Nand, Devina and Nangia, Vinay and Narayan, K. M. Venkat and Nash, Denis and Nasher, Jamal and Nejjari, Chakib and Nelson, Robert G. and Neuhouser, Marian and Neupane, Sudan Prasad and Newcomb, Polly A. and Newman, Lori and Newton, Charles R. and Ng, Marie and Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak and Nguyen, Grant and Thi Trang Nguyen, Nhung and Nisar, Muhammad Imran and Nolte, Sandra and Norheim, Ole F. and Norman, Rosana E. and Norrving, Bo and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Odell, Shaun and O'Donnell, Martin and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Ohno, Summer Lockett and Olusanya, Bolajoko O. and Omer, Saad B. and Opio, John Nelson and Orisakwe, Orish Ebere and Ortblad, Katrina F. and Ortiz, Alberto and Otayza, Maria Lourdes K. and Pain, Amanda W. and Pandian, Jeyaraj D. and Panelo, Carlo Irwin and Panniyammakal, Jeemon and Papachristou, Christina and Paternina Caicedo, Angel J. and Patten, Scott B. and Patton, George C. and Paul, Vinod K. and Pavlin, Boris and Pearce, Neil and Pellegrini, Carlos A. and Pereira, David M. and Peresson, Sophie C. and Perez-Padilla, Rogelio and Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P. and Perico, Norberto and Pervaiz, Aslam and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peterson, Carrie B. and Petzold, Max and Phillips, Bryan K. and Phillips, David E. and Phillips, Michael R. and Plass, Dietrich and Piel, Frederic Bernard and Poenaru, Dan and Polinder, Suzanne and Popova, Svetlana and Poulton, Richie G. and Pourmalek, Farshad and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Qato, Dima and Quezada, Amado D. and Quistberg, D. Alex and Rabito, Felicia and Rafay, Anwar and Rahimi, Kazem and Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa and Rahman, Sajjad U. R. and Raju, Murugesan and Rakovac, Ivo and Rana, Saleem M. and Refaat, Amany and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Ribeiro, Antonio L. and Ricci, Stefano and Riccio, Patricia M. and Richardson, Lee and Richardus, Jan Hendrik and Roberts, Bayard and Roberts, D. Allen and Robinson, Margaret and Roca, Anna and Rodriguez, Alina and Rojas-Rueda, David and Ronfani, Luca and Room, Robin and Roth, Gregory A. and Rothenbacher, Dietrich and Rothstein, David H. and Rowley, Jane Tf and Roy, Nobhojit and Ruhago, George M. and Rushton, Lesley and Sambandam, Sankar and Soreide, Kjetil and Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya and Saha, Sukanta and Sahathevan, Ramesh and Sahraian, Mohammad Ali and Sahle, Berhe Weldearegawi and Salomon, Joshua A. and Salvo, Deborah and Samonte, Genesis May J. and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Sanabria, Juan Ramon and Sandar, Logan and Santos, Itamar S. and Satpathy, Maheswar and Sawhney, Monika and Saylan, Mete and Scarborough, Peter and Schoettker, Ben and Schmidt, Juergen C. and Schneider, Ione J. C. and Schumacher, Austin E. and Schwebel, David C. and Scott, James G. and Sepanlou, Sadaf G. and Servan-Mori, Edson E. and Shackelford, Katya and Shaheen, Amira and Shahraz, Saeid and Shakh-Nazarova, Marina and Shangguan, Siyi and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shepard, Donald S. and Shibuya, Kenji and Shinohara, Yukito and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Shivakoti, Rupak and Shrime, Mark G. and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silberberg, Donald H. and Silva, Andrea P. and Simard, Edgar P. and Sindi, Shireen and Singh, Jasvinder A. and Singh, Lavanya and Sioson, Edgar and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and So, Samuel and Soljak, Michael and Soneji, Samir and Soshnikov, Sergey S. and Sposato, Luciano A. and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. and Stanaway, Jeff Rey D. and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi and Steenland, Kyle and Stein, Claudia and Steiner, Caitlyn and Stevens, Antony and Stoeckl, Heidi and Straif, Kurt and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Sturua, Lela and Sunguya, Bruno F. and Swaminathan, Soumya and Swaroop, Mamta and Sykes, Bryan L. and Tabb, Karen M. and Takahashi, Ken and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Tan, Feng and Tanne, David and Tanner, Marcel and Tavakkoli, Mohammad and Ao, Braden Te and Teixeira, Carolina Maria and Templin, Tara and Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomas, Bernadette A. and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L. and Thrift, Amanda G. and Thurston, George D. and Tillmann, Taavi and Tirschwell, David L. and Tleyjeh, Imad M. and Tonelli, Marcello and Topouzis, Fotis and Towbin, Jeffrey A. and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Traebert, Jefferson and Tran, Bach X. and Truelsen, Thomas and Trujillo, Ulises and Trillini, Matias and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis and Tuzcu, E. Murat and Ubeda, Clotilde and Uchendu, Uche S. and Ukwaja, Kingsley N. and Undurraga, Eduardo A. and Vallely, Andrew J. and van de Vijver, Steven and van Gool, Coen H. and Varakin, Yuri Y. and Vasankari, Tommi J. and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales and Vavilala, Monica S. and Venketasubramanian, N. and Vijayakumar, Lakshmi and Villalpando, Salvador and Violante, Francesco S. and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Wagner, Gregory R. and Waller, Stephen G. and Wang, JianLi and Wang, Linhong and Wang, XiaoRong and Wang, Yanping and Warouw, Tati Suryati and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G. and Wenzhi, Wang and Werdecker, Andrea and Wessells, K. Ryan R. and Westerman, Ronny and Whiteford, Harvey A. and Wilkinson, James D. and Williams, Thomas Neil and Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret and Wolfe, Charles D. A. and Wolock, Timothy M. and Woolf, Anthony D. and Wong, John Q. and Wright, Jonathan L. and Wulf, Sarah and Wurtz, Brittany and Xu, Gelin and Yang, Yang C. and Yano, Yuichiro and Yatsuya, Hiroshi and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Yoon, Seok-Jun and Younis, Mustafa and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed and Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad and Zeeb, Hajo and Zhang, Yong and Zhao, Yong and Zheng, Yingfeng and Zhu, Jun and Zhu, Shankuan and Zonies, David and Zou, Xiao Nong and Zunt, Joseph R. and Vos, Theo and Lopez, Alan D. and Murray, Christopher J. L.},
  issn         = {1474-547X},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {9963},
  pages        = {117--171},
  publisher    = {Elsevier Limited},
  series       = {The Lancet},
  title        = {Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2},
  volume       = {385},
  year         = {2015},
}