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Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Damping in the Nordic Power System

Sulla, Francesco LU ; Koivisto, Matti; Seppanen, Janne; Turunen, Jukka; Haarla, Liisa C. and Samuelsson, Olof LU (2015) In IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 30(1). p.306-315
Abstract
This paper presents an application of multiple linear regression (MLR) to extract significant correlations between damping of electromechanical modes and system operating conditions and to forecast future damping values, based on existing day-ahead market forecasts for power flows and generation. The presented analysis uses measurements from the Nordic power system. First, a static MLR model is developed to explain the variability of the damping of the 0.35-Hz inter-area mode in the Nordic system. Together with the static model, a dynamic MLR model is used for forecasting the damping 24 hours ahead, using day-ahead market forecasts. Test results indicate the proposed methods are able to correctly predict about 90% of the low damped... (More)
This paper presents an application of multiple linear regression (MLR) to extract significant correlations between damping of electromechanical modes and system operating conditions and to forecast future damping values, based on existing day-ahead market forecasts for power flows and generation. The presented analysis uses measurements from the Nordic power system. First, a static MLR model is developed to explain the variability of the damping of the 0.35-Hz inter-area mode in the Nordic system. Together with the static model, a dynamic MLR model is used for forecasting the damping 24 hours ahead, using day-ahead market forecasts. Test results indicate the proposed methods are able to correctly predict about 90% of the low damped operating conditions observed during a year, if day-ahead market forecasts are accurate. These results suggest that the methods could be used to issue early warnings about future operating conditions with low damping. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Damping forecast, electromechanical oscillations, multiple linear, regression (MLR), phasor measurement unit (PMU) data
in
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
volume
30
issue
1
pages
306 - 315
publisher
IEEE--Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
external identifiers
  • wos:000346734000029
  • scopus:84919915290
ISSN
0885-8950
DOI
10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2329489
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d41ecd1c-dd8f-4133-8874-03f6b9aa3956 (old id 5085197)
date added to LUP
2015-02-26 11:56:05
date last changed
2017-06-11 04:13:17
@article{d41ecd1c-dd8f-4133-8874-03f6b9aa3956,
  abstract     = {This paper presents an application of multiple linear regression (MLR) to extract significant correlations between damping of electromechanical modes and system operating conditions and to forecast future damping values, based on existing day-ahead market forecasts for power flows and generation. The presented analysis uses measurements from the Nordic power system. First, a static MLR model is developed to explain the variability of the damping of the 0.35-Hz inter-area mode in the Nordic system. Together with the static model, a dynamic MLR model is used for forecasting the damping 24 hours ahead, using day-ahead market forecasts. Test results indicate the proposed methods are able to correctly predict about 90% of the low damped operating conditions observed during a year, if day-ahead market forecasts are accurate. These results suggest that the methods could be used to issue early warnings about future operating conditions with low damping.},
  author       = {Sulla, Francesco and Koivisto, Matti and Seppanen, Janne and Turunen, Jukka and Haarla, Liisa C. and Samuelsson, Olof},
  issn         = {0885-8950},
  keyword      = {Damping forecast,electromechanical oscillations,multiple linear,regression (MLR),phasor measurement unit (PMU) data},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {306--315},
  publisher    = {IEEE--Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.},
  series       = {IEEE Transactions on Power Systems},
  title        = {Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Damping in the Nordic Power System},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2329489},
  volume       = {30},
  year         = {2015},
}