Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures
Nasr, Amro LU ; Kjellström, Erik ; Larsson Ivanov, Oskar LU ; Johansson, Jonas LU
; Björnsson, Ivar
LU
and Honfi, Daniel
(2021)
31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2022
p.1318-1325
- Abstract
- Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two... (More)
- Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/50e12e4e-1d69-44ab-a78c-ae58be4c9a4c
- author
- Nasr, Amro
LU
; Kjellström, Erik
; Larsson Ivanov, Oskar
LU
; Johansson, Jonas
LU
; Björnsson, Ivar
LU
and Honfi, Daniel
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021
- type
- Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
- publication status
- published
- subject
- host publication
- Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)
- pages
- 1318 - 1325
- publisher
- Research Publishing, Singapore
- conference name
- 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2022
- conference location
- Angers, France
- conference dates
- 2021-09-19 - 2021-09-23
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85118279175
- ISBN
- 978-981-18-2016-8
- DOI
- 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_539-cd
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 50e12e4e-1d69-44ab-a78c-ae58be4c9a4c
- date added to LUP
- 2022-08-19 09:23:27
- date last changed
- 2024-09-05 21:44:56
@inproceedings{50e12e4e-1d69-44ab-a78c-ae58be4c9a4c,
abstract = {{Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling.}},
author = {{Nasr, Amro and Kjellström, Erik and Larsson Ivanov, Oskar and Johansson, Jonas and Björnsson, Ivar and Honfi, Daniel}},
booktitle = {{Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)}},
isbn = {{978-981-18-2016-8}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{1318--1325}},
publisher = {{Research Publishing, Singapore}},
title = {{Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures}},
url = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/122863263/539.pdf}},
doi = {{10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_539-cd}},
year = {{2021}},
}