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Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis

Lindström, Erik LU ; Noren, Vicke and Madsen, Henrik (2015) In Applied Energy 146. p.239-246
Abstract
Integration of fluctuating renewables like wind and solar power is nowadays a hot topic, but this comes at a cost of decreased stability of the power system. The deterioration often translates into so-called spikes and drops in the electricity spot price, very large (even extreme) deviations from the regular spot price, followed by a reversion to roughly the original level a few days later. We use the spikes and drops as an strong indication that there is an imbalance in the physical power system in this paper. Independent Spike Models (ISM) is a popular class of models for the electricity spot price that uses regime switching, typically having three regimes (base regime, spikes and drops). We fit a such model to Nord Pool spot data to... (More)
Integration of fluctuating renewables like wind and solar power is nowadays a hot topic, but this comes at a cost of decreased stability of the power system. The deterioration often translates into so-called spikes and drops in the electricity spot price, very large (even extreme) deviations from the regular spot price, followed by a reversion to roughly the original level a few days later. We use the spikes and drops as an strong indication that there is an imbalance in the physical power system in this paper. Independent Spike Models (ISM) is a popular class of models for the electricity spot price that uses regime switching, typically having three regimes (base regime, spikes and drops). We fit a such model to Nord Pool spot data to characterize the size and intensity of these deviations, and proceed by augmenting the standard second generation, three factor Independent Spike Model by relating the spike and drop intensity to several factors and find strong statistical support for relating the consumption to the spike and drop intensity. The model is then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects when modifying the consumption in order to mimic how additional renewables are integrated into the power system or conversely the effects when smoothing consumption using 'strategies that can be implemented in smart grids. We use this tool to obtain a direct measure of how much the spike and drop intensity can be reduced by smoothing the consumption and see that even a small increase in the variability of the consumption translates into decreased stability (more spikes and/or drops) of the power system. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Independent Spike Model, Electricity spot price, Nord Pool, Consumption, management
in
Applied Energy
volume
146
pages
239 - 246
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000353090900025
  • scopus:84924195216
ISSN
1872-9118
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.113
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3bdab7b9-40b6-4265-9a18-828080c3e998 (old id 5386020)
date added to LUP
2015-05-18 14:07:09
date last changed
2017-02-08 13:39:14
@article{3bdab7b9-40b6-4265-9a18-828080c3e998,
  abstract     = {Integration of fluctuating renewables like wind and solar power is nowadays a hot topic, but this comes at a cost of decreased stability of the power system. The deterioration often translates into so-called spikes and drops in the electricity spot price, very large (even extreme) deviations from the regular spot price, followed by a reversion to roughly the original level a few days later. We use the spikes and drops as an strong indication that there is an imbalance in the physical power system in this paper. Independent Spike Models (ISM) is a popular class of models for the electricity spot price that uses regime switching, typically having three regimes (base regime, spikes and drops). We fit a such model to Nord Pool spot data to characterize the size and intensity of these deviations, and proceed by augmenting the standard second generation, three factor Independent Spike Model by relating the spike and drop intensity to several factors and find strong statistical support for relating the consumption to the spike and drop intensity. The model is then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects when modifying the consumption in order to mimic how additional renewables are integrated into the power system or conversely the effects when smoothing consumption using 'strategies that can be implemented in smart grids. We use this tool to obtain a direct measure of how much the spike and drop intensity can be reduced by smoothing the consumption and see that even a small increase in the variability of the consumption translates into decreased stability (more spikes and/or drops) of the power system. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Lindström, Erik and Noren, Vicke and Madsen, Henrik},
  issn         = {1872-9118},
  keyword      = {Independent Spike Model,Electricity spot price,Nord Pool,Consumption,management},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {239--246},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Applied Energy},
  title        = {Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.113},
  volume       = {146},
  year         = {2015},
}