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An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

Hashemi, Hossein LU ; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia LU and Berndtsson, Ronny LU (2014) In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 11(10). p.11797-11835
Abstract
The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002– 2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated... (More)
The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002– 2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall–runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference be- tween present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to specialist publication or newspaper
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Iran, Recharge, Numerical modeling, Climate change, Groundwater
categories
Higher Education
Popular Science
in
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions
volume
11
issue
10
pages
11797 - 11835
publisher
Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
ISSN
1812-2108
DOI
10.5194/hessd-11-11797-2014
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
866f5d64-631d-415f-ae33-f45c1be081c7 (old id 5462851)
date added to LUP
2015-06-02 13:06:04
date last changed
2016-04-15 16:12:34
@misc{866f5d64-631d-415f-ae33-f45c1be081c7,
  abstract     = {The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002– 2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall–runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference be- tween present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.},
  author       = {Hashemi, Hossein and Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia and Berndtsson, Ronny},
  issn         = {1812-2108},
  keyword      = {Iran,Recharge,Numerical modeling,Climate change,Groundwater},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {10},
  pages        = {11797--11835},
  publisher    = {Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh},
  series       = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
  title        = {An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-11797-2014},
  volume       = {11},
  year         = {2014},
}