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Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices

Yuan, Feifei LU ; Berndtsson, Ronny LU ; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi LU ; Zhang, Linus LU and Jiang, Peng (2016) In Hydrology Research 47(4). p.847-856
Abstract

The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relationships between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns using climate... (More)

The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relationships between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Niño Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was, in general, larger than 0.6. The results can be used to predict the summer precipitation and to improve integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Source region of the Yellow River, Summer precipitation prediction, Teleconnection pattern
in
Hydrology Research
volume
47
issue
4
pages
10 pages
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:84982787098
ISSN
1998-9563
DOI
10.2166/nh.2015.062
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
67e3582b-d9a0-4228-950b-5fe887293839
date added to LUP
2016-12-13 10:46:05
date last changed
2017-11-19 04:35:55
@article{67e3582b-d9a0-4228-950b-5fe887293839,
  abstract     = {<p>The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relationships between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Niño Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was, in general, larger than 0.6. The results can be used to predict the summer precipitation and to improve integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.</p>},
  author       = {Yuan, Feifei and Berndtsson, Ronny and Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi and Zhang, Linus and Jiang, Peng},
  issn         = {1998-9563},
  keyword      = {Source region of the Yellow River,Summer precipitation prediction,Teleconnection pattern},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {08},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {847--856},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Hydrology Research},
  title        = {Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2015.062},
  volume       = {47},
  year         = {2016},
}