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Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration

Belyazid, Salim LU and Giuliana, Zanchi LU (2019) In European Journal of Forest Research 138(2). p.287-297
Abstract

Climate change will bring about a consistent increase in temperatures. Annual precipitation rates are also expected to increase in boreal countries, but the seasonal distribution will be uneven, and several areas in the boreal zone will experience wetter winters and drier summers. This study uses the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE to estimate the combined effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest carbon stocks in Sweden. The model is used to simulate carbon stock changes in 544 productive forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Forest carbon stocks under two alternative climate scenarios are compared to stocks under a hypothetical scenario of no climate change (baseline). Results show that... (More)

Climate change will bring about a consistent increase in temperatures. Annual precipitation rates are also expected to increase in boreal countries, but the seasonal distribution will be uneven, and several areas in the boreal zone will experience wetter winters and drier summers. This study uses the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE to estimate the combined effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest carbon stocks in Sweden. The model is used to simulate carbon stock changes in 544 productive forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Forest carbon stocks under two alternative climate scenarios are compared to stocks under a hypothetical scenario of no climate change (baseline). Results show that lower water availability in the future can cause a significant reduction in tree carbon compared to a baseline scenario, particularly expressed in the southern and eastern parts of Sweden. In contrast, the north-western parts will experience an increase in tree carbon stocks. Results show also that summer precipitation is a better predictor of tree carbon reduction than annual precipitation. Finally, the change in soil carbon stock is less conspicuous than in tree carbon stock, showing no significant change in the north and a relatively small but consistent decline in the south. The study indicates that the prospect of higher water deficit caused by climate change cannot be ignored in future forest management planning.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, Dynamic modelling, Forest carbon stock, ForSAFE, Sweden, Water deficiency
in
European Journal of Forest Research
volume
138
issue
2
pages
287 - 297
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85060714413
ISSN
1612-4669
DOI
10.1007/s10342-019-01168-4
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
72a3cf0b-ccef-40fb-a311-55627537e6de
date added to LUP
2019-02-06 15:43:53
date last changed
2019-08-14 04:32:05
@article{72a3cf0b-ccef-40fb-a311-55627537e6de,
  abstract     = {<p>Climate change will bring about a consistent increase in temperatures. Annual precipitation rates are also expected to increase in boreal countries, but the seasonal distribution will be uneven, and several areas in the boreal zone will experience wetter winters and drier summers. This study uses the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE to estimate the combined effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest carbon stocks in Sweden. The model is used to simulate carbon stock changes in 544 productive forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Forest carbon stocks under two alternative climate scenarios are compared to stocks under a hypothetical scenario of no climate change (baseline). Results show that lower water availability in the future can cause a significant reduction in tree carbon compared to a baseline scenario, particularly expressed in the southern and eastern parts of Sweden. In contrast, the north-western parts will experience an increase in tree carbon stocks. Results show also that summer precipitation is a better predictor of tree carbon reduction than annual precipitation. Finally, the change in soil carbon stock is less conspicuous than in tree carbon stock, showing no significant change in the north and a relatively small but consistent decline in the south. The study indicates that the prospect of higher water deficit caused by climate change cannot be ignored in future forest management planning.</p>},
  author       = {Belyazid, Salim and Giuliana, Zanchi},
  issn         = {1612-4669},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Dynamic modelling,Forest carbon stock,ForSAFE,Sweden,Water deficiency},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {01},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {287--297},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {European Journal of Forest Research},
  title        = {Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10342-019-01168-4},
  volume       = {138},
  year         = {2019},
}