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Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas : Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

Hashemi, Hossein LU ; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia LU and Berndtsson, Ronny LU (2015) In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(10). p.4165-4181
Abstract
The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a model- ing approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region us- ing the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated... (More)
The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a model- ing approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region us- ing the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall–runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, groundwater recharge model, Arid area, adaptation
in
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
volume
19
issue
10
pages
4165 - 4181
publisher
European Geophysical Society
external identifiers
  • wos:000364327800009
  • scopus:84944929997
ISSN
1607-7938
DOI
10.5194/hess-19-4165-2015
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fb978cba-133c-41bb-a08c-356bb6b14270 (old id 8386454)
date added to LUP
2015-12-22 07:56:00
date last changed
2017-10-22 03:02:19
@article{fb978cba-133c-41bb-a08c-356bb6b14270,
  abstract     = {The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a model- ing approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region us- ing the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall–runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.},
  author       = {Hashemi, Hossein and Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia and Berndtsson, Ronny},
  issn         = {1607-7938},
  keyword      = {Climate change,groundwater recharge model,Arid area,adaptation},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {10},
  number       = {10},
  pages        = {4165--4181},
  publisher    = {European Geophysical Society},
  series       = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  title        = {Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas : Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4165-2015},
  volume       = {19},
  year         = {2015},
}