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CHA2DS2VASc score and adverse outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation

Renda, Giulia; Ricci, Fabrizio LU ; Patti, Giuseppe; Aung, Nay; Petersen, Steffen E; Gallina, Sabina; Hamrefors, Viktor LU ; Melander, Olle LU ; Sutton, Richard and Engstrom, Gunnar LU , et al. (2019) In European Journal of Preventive Cardiology
Abstract

AIMS: The CHA2DS2VASc score is used to evaluate the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We assessed the prognostic yield of CHA2DS2VASc for new-onset atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a non-atrial fibrillation population.

METHODS: We analysed a population-based cohort of 22,179 middle-aged individuals with (n = 3542) and without (n = 18,367) a history of atrial fibrillation; we grouped the population into five CHA2DS2VASc strata (0-1-2-3-≥4), and compared the risk of major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events and mortality. Furthermore, we analysed the annual incidence of atrial fibrillation across different CHA2DS2VASc strata.

RESULTS: Over a median... (More)

AIMS: The CHA2DS2VASc score is used to evaluate the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We assessed the prognostic yield of CHA2DS2VASc for new-onset atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a non-atrial fibrillation population.

METHODS: We analysed a population-based cohort of 22,179 middle-aged individuals with (n = 3542) and without (n = 18,367) a history of atrial fibrillation; we grouped the population into five CHA2DS2VASc strata (0-1-2-3-≥4), and compared the risk of major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events and mortality. Furthermore, we analysed the annual incidence of atrial fibrillation across different CHA2DS2VASc strata.

RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 15 years, 1572 patients (6.9%) had ischaemic strokes, 2162 (9.5%) coronary events and 5899 (26%) died. The cumulative incidence of ischaemic stroke in CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 4 subjects without atrial fibrillation was similar to patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2VASc 2, with a 10-year crude incidence rate of 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.19) and 1.13 (95% CI 0.93-1.36) ischaemic strokes per 100 patient-years, respectively. CHA2DS2VASc in a non-atrial fibrillation population showed higher predictive accuracy for ischaemic stroke compared with an atrial fibrillation population (area under the curve 0.60 vs. 0.56; P = 0.001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 2 was an independent predictor of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.58; 95% CI 2.42-2.76), cardiovascular death (aHR 3.40; 95% CI 2.98-3.89), ischaemic stroke (aHR 2.20; 95% CI 1.92-2.53) and coronary events (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.63-2.04). The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation was greater with increasing CHA2DS2VASc strata, with an absolute annual incidence of more than 2% per year if CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 4.

CONCLUSION: The CHA2DS2VASc score is a sensitive tool for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes in subjects both with and without atrial fibrillation.

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European Journal of Preventive Cardiology
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SAGE Publications Ltd STM
external identifiers
  • scopus:85071429576
ISSN
2047-4881
DOI
10.1177/2047487319868320
language
English
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yes
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870c2f46-66a7-42b7-84dc-32c9f44a2912
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2019-08-22 07:44:38
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2019-11-13 05:39:56
@article{870c2f46-66a7-42b7-84dc-32c9f44a2912,
  abstract     = {<p>AIMS: The CHA2DS2VASc score is used to evaluate the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We assessed the prognostic yield of CHA2DS2VASc for new-onset atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a non-atrial fibrillation population.</p><p>METHODS: We analysed a population-based cohort of 22,179 middle-aged individuals with (n = 3542) and without (n = 18,367) a history of atrial fibrillation; we grouped the population into five CHA2DS2VASc strata (0-1-2-3-≥4), and compared the risk of major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events and mortality. Furthermore, we analysed the annual incidence of atrial fibrillation across different CHA2DS2VASc strata.</p><p>RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 15 years, 1572 patients (6.9%) had ischaemic strokes, 2162 (9.5%) coronary events and 5899 (26%) died. The cumulative incidence of ischaemic stroke in CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 4 subjects without atrial fibrillation was similar to patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2VASc 2, with a 10-year crude incidence rate of 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.19) and 1.13 (95% CI 0.93-1.36) ischaemic strokes per 100 patient-years, respectively. CHA2DS2VASc in a non-atrial fibrillation population showed higher predictive accuracy for ischaemic stroke compared with an atrial fibrillation population (area under the curve 0.60 vs. 0.56; P = 0.001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 2 was an independent predictor of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.58; 95% CI 2.42-2.76), cardiovascular death (aHR 3.40; 95% CI 2.98-3.89), ischaemic stroke (aHR 2.20; 95% CI 1.92-2.53) and coronary events (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.63-2.04). The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation was greater with increasing CHA2DS2VASc strata, with an absolute annual incidence of more than 2% per year if CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 4.</p><p>CONCLUSION: The CHA2DS2VASc score is a sensitive tool for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes in subjects both with and without atrial fibrillation.</p>},
  author       = {Renda, Giulia and Ricci, Fabrizio and Patti, Giuseppe and Aung, Nay and Petersen, Steffen E and Gallina, Sabina and Hamrefors, Viktor and Melander, Olle and Sutton, Richard and Engstrom, Gunnar and Caterina, Raffaele De and Fedorowski, Artur},
  issn         = {2047-4881},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {08},
  publisher    = {SAGE Publications Ltd STM},
  series       = {European Journal of Preventive Cardiology},
  title        = {CHA2DS2VASc score and adverse outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2047487319868320},
  year         = {2019},
}