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Integrating Multi-Level Sustainability and Ecosystem Integrity for Adaptive Scenario Planning in China

Wang, Yafei LU ; He, Yao ; Zhou, Hao LU orcid ; Kuiper, Jan J. ; Scown, Murray LU ; Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam R. ; Olin, Stefan LU orcid ; Olsson, Lennart LU orcid ; Ye, Yuxuan and Shen, Shuwei , et al. (2025) In Earth's Future 13(10).
Abstract

Climate change calls for adaptive strategies to manage land system across governance levels, as differing multi-level policies distinctly shape land system and long-term ecosystem resilience. This study proposes an iterative approach for optimizing land-use pathways that balance competing policy objectives across national, provincial, and local levels without compromising ecosystem integrity in a changing climate. This approach was applied to the Huangshui River Basin on China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region facing significant challenges from climate change and human activities. We integrated the land-use change model CLUMondo with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to compare our sustainable development pathway against scenarios... (More)

Climate change calls for adaptive strategies to manage land system across governance levels, as differing multi-level policies distinctly shape land system and long-term ecosystem resilience. This study proposes an iterative approach for optimizing land-use pathways that balance competing policy objectives across national, provincial, and local levels without compromising ecosystem integrity in a changing climate. This approach was applied to the Huangshui River Basin on China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region facing significant challenges from climate change and human activities. We integrated the land-use change model CLUMondo with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to compare our sustainable development pathway against scenarios based on plans prioritizing national, provincial, and local governance objectives. The analysis revealed considerable mismatches in management goals across governance levels within the Huangshui River Basin, emphasizing the necessity of multi-scale coordination to align planning objectives for achieving desired goals. This study presents an optimization framework to quantitatively evaluate trade-offs and balance between sustainability objectives and ecosystem integrity in response to system feedbacks, offering critical insights into reconciling potentially conflicting sustainability goals across multiple scales within socio-ecological systems.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
clumondo, ecological resilience, land system, LPJ-GUESS, social-ecological systems modeling
in
Earth's Future
volume
13
issue
10
article number
e2025EF006853
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • scopus:105019305472
ISSN
2328-4277
DOI
10.1029/2025EF006853
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s).
id
873dd287-dfe9-43b2-b53a-6555a8c7c583
date added to LUP
2025-12-18 09:34:06
date last changed
2025-12-18 14:44:25
@article{873dd287-dfe9-43b2-b53a-6555a8c7c583,
  abstract     = {{<p>Climate change calls for adaptive strategies to manage land system across governance levels, as differing multi-level policies distinctly shape land system and long-term ecosystem resilience. This study proposes an iterative approach for optimizing land-use pathways that balance competing policy objectives across national, provincial, and local levels without compromising ecosystem integrity in a changing climate. This approach was applied to the Huangshui River Basin on China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region facing significant challenges from climate change and human activities. We integrated the land-use change model CLUMondo with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to compare our sustainable development pathway against scenarios based on plans prioritizing national, provincial, and local governance objectives. The analysis revealed considerable mismatches in management goals across governance levels within the Huangshui River Basin, emphasizing the necessity of multi-scale coordination to align planning objectives for achieving desired goals. This study presents an optimization framework to quantitatively evaluate trade-offs and balance between sustainability objectives and ecosystem integrity in response to system feedbacks, offering critical insights into reconciling potentially conflicting sustainability goals across multiple scales within socio-ecological systems.</p>}},
  author       = {{Wang, Yafei and He, Yao and Zhou, Hao and Kuiper, Jan J. and Scown, Murray and Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam R. and Olin, Stefan and Olsson, Lennart and Ye, Yuxuan and Shen, Shuwei and Fan, Jie and Peterson, Garry D.}},
  issn         = {{2328-4277}},
  keywords     = {{clumondo; ecological resilience; land system; LPJ-GUESS; social-ecological systems modeling}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{10}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Earth's Future}},
  title        = {{Integrating Multi-Level Sustainability and Ecosystem Integrity for Adaptive Scenario Planning in China}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006853}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2025EF006853}},
  volume       = {{13}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}