Integrating Multi-Level Sustainability and Ecosystem Integrity for Adaptive Scenario Planning in China
(2025) In Earth's Future 13(10).- Abstract
Climate change calls for adaptive strategies to manage land system across governance levels, as differing multi-level policies distinctly shape land system and long-term ecosystem resilience. This study proposes an iterative approach for optimizing land-use pathways that balance competing policy objectives across national, provincial, and local levels without compromising ecosystem integrity in a changing climate. This approach was applied to the Huangshui River Basin on China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region facing significant challenges from climate change and human activities. We integrated the land-use change model CLUMondo with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to compare our sustainable development pathway against scenarios... (More)
Climate change calls for adaptive strategies to manage land system across governance levels, as differing multi-level policies distinctly shape land system and long-term ecosystem resilience. This study proposes an iterative approach for optimizing land-use pathways that balance competing policy objectives across national, provincial, and local levels without compromising ecosystem integrity in a changing climate. This approach was applied to the Huangshui River Basin on China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region facing significant challenges from climate change and human activities. We integrated the land-use change model CLUMondo with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to compare our sustainable development pathway against scenarios based on plans prioritizing national, provincial, and local governance objectives. The analysis revealed considerable mismatches in management goals across governance levels within the Huangshui River Basin, emphasizing the necessity of multi-scale coordination to align planning objectives for achieving desired goals. This study presents an optimization framework to quantitatively evaluate trade-offs and balance between sustainability objectives and ecosystem integrity in response to system feedbacks, offering critical insights into reconciling potentially conflicting sustainability goals across multiple scales within socio-ecological systems.
(Less)
- author
- organization
-
- LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies)
- Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
- LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions
- publishing date
- 2025-10
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- clumondo, ecological resilience, land system, LPJ-GUESS, social-ecological systems modeling
- in
- Earth's Future
- volume
- 13
- issue
- 10
- article number
- e2025EF006853
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105019305472
- ISSN
- 2328-4277
- DOI
- 10.1029/2025EF006853
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s).
- id
- 873dd287-dfe9-43b2-b53a-6555a8c7c583
- date added to LUP
- 2025-12-18 09:34:06
- date last changed
- 2025-12-18 14:44:25
@article{873dd287-dfe9-43b2-b53a-6555a8c7c583,
abstract = {{<p>Climate change calls for adaptive strategies to manage land system across governance levels, as differing multi-level policies distinctly shape land system and long-term ecosystem resilience. This study proposes an iterative approach for optimizing land-use pathways that balance competing policy objectives across national, provincial, and local levels without compromising ecosystem integrity in a changing climate. This approach was applied to the Huangshui River Basin on China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a region facing significant challenges from climate change and human activities. We integrated the land-use change model CLUMondo with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to compare our sustainable development pathway against scenarios based on plans prioritizing national, provincial, and local governance objectives. The analysis revealed considerable mismatches in management goals across governance levels within the Huangshui River Basin, emphasizing the necessity of multi-scale coordination to align planning objectives for achieving desired goals. This study presents an optimization framework to quantitatively evaluate trade-offs and balance between sustainability objectives and ecosystem integrity in response to system feedbacks, offering critical insights into reconciling potentially conflicting sustainability goals across multiple scales within socio-ecological systems.</p>}},
author = {{Wang, Yafei and He, Yao and Zhou, Hao and Kuiper, Jan J. and Scown, Murray and Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam R. and Olin, Stefan and Olsson, Lennart and Ye, Yuxuan and Shen, Shuwei and Fan, Jie and Peterson, Garry D.}},
issn = {{2328-4277}},
keywords = {{clumondo; ecological resilience; land system; LPJ-GUESS; social-ecological systems modeling}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{10}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{Earth's Future}},
title = {{Integrating Multi-Level Sustainability and Ecosystem Integrity for Adaptive Scenario Planning in China}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006853}},
doi = {{10.1029/2025EF006853}},
volume = {{13}},
year = {{2025}},
}
