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Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction : the SweDen risk score

Rylance, Rebecca Tremain LU ; Wagner, Philippe LU ; Olesen, Kevin K W ; Carlson, Jonas LU orcid ; Alfredsson, Joakim ; Jernberg, Tomas ; Leosdottir, Margret LU ; Johansson, Pelle ; Vasko, Peter and Maeng, Michael , et al. (2022) In Open Heart 9(2).
Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS: The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and... (More)

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS: The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.

RESULTS: The area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.

CONCLUSIONS: The SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Humans, Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use, Sweden/epidemiology, Risk Factors, Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis, Heart Failure
in
Open Heart
volume
9
issue
2
article number
e002143
pages
6 pages
publisher
BMJ Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:36460308
  • scopus:85143897156
ISSN
2053-3624
DOI
10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
id
89722d66-fa55-4998-83e4-f261fcb0d3aa
date added to LUP
2022-12-06 14:03:58
date last changed
2024-05-30 12:29:31
@article{89722d66-fa55-4998-83e4-f261fcb0d3aa,
  abstract     = {{<p>OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).</p><p>METHODS: The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.</p><p>RESULTS: The area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.</p><p>CONCLUSIONS: The SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.</p>}},
  author       = {{Rylance, Rebecca Tremain and Wagner, Philippe and Olesen, Kevin K W and Carlson, Jonas and Alfredsson, Joakim and Jernberg, Tomas and Leosdottir, Margret and Johansson, Pelle and Vasko, Peter and Maeng, Michael and Mohammed, Moman Aladdin and Erlinge, David}},
  issn         = {{2053-3624}},
  keywords     = {{Humans; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use; Sweden/epidemiology; Risk Factors; Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis; Heart Failure}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  publisher    = {{BMJ Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Open Heart}},
  title        = {{Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction : the SweDen risk score}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143}},
  doi          = {{10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143}},
  volume       = {{9}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}