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Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000-2020

Zhang, Zhen ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Melton, Joe R. ; Riley, William J. ; Allen, George H. ; Beerling, David J. ; Bousquet, Philippe ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne and Ciais, Philippe , et al. (2025) In Biogeosciences 22(1). p.305-321
Abstract

Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000-2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr-1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010-2020, with an average increase of 6-7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010-2019... (More)

Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000-2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr-1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010-2020, with an average increase of 6-7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010-2019 compared to the average for 2000-2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90-30° S, 30° S-30° N, 30-60° N, and 60-90° N were 0.1-0.2, 3.6-3.7, 1.8-2.4, and 0.6-0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH4 sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH4 emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Biogeosciences
volume
22
issue
1
pages
17 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:85216370223
ISSN
1726-4170
DOI
10.5194/bg-22-305-2025
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2025 Zhen Zhang et al.
id
b03f3c28-10e5-474d-8867-5e04ac0c5ef9
date added to LUP
2025-03-16 19:11:46
date last changed
2025-04-07 08:21:15
@article{b03f3c28-10e5-474d-8867-5e04ac0c5ef9,
  abstract     = {{<p>Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000-2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup> over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km<sup>2</sup> for the period 2010-2020, with an average increase of 6-7 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup> in 2010-2019 compared to the average for 2000-2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90-30° S, 30° S-30° N, 30-60° N, and 60-90° N were 0.1-0.2, 3.6-3.7, 1.8-2.4, and 0.6-0.8 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH<sub>4</sub> sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.</p>}},
  author       = {{Zhang, Zhen and Poulter, Benjamin and Melton, Joe R. and Riley, William J. and Allen, George H. and Beerling, David J. and Bousquet, Philippe and Canadell, Josep G. and Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne and Ciais, Philippe and Gedney, Nicola and Hopcroft, Peter O. and Ito, Akihiko and Jackson, Robert B. and Jain, Atul K. and Jensen, Katherine and Joos, Fortunat and Kleinen, Thomas and Knox, Sara H. and Li, Tingting and Li, Xin and Liu, Xiangyu and Mcdonald, Kyle and Mcnicol, Gavin and Miller, Paul A. and Müller, Jurek and Patra, Prabir K. and Peng, Changhui and Peng, Shushi and Qin, Zhangcai and Riggs, Ryan M. and Saunois, Marielle and Sun, Qing and Tian, Hanqin and Xu, Xiaoming and Yao, Yuanzhi and Xi, Yi and Zhang, Wenxin and Zhu, Qing and Zhu, Qiuan and Zhuang, Qianlai}},
  issn         = {{1726-4170}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  number       = {{1}},
  pages        = {{305--321}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Biogeosciences}},
  title        = {{Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000-2020}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/bg-22-305-2025}},
  volume       = {{22}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}