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Predicting the geographical distribution of drug use disorder in Sweden from the geographical variation in social deprivation, genetic risk and urbanization

Kendler, Kenneth S. ; Zhao, Pengxiang LU ; Mansourian, Ali LU orcid ; Ohlsson, Henrik LU ; Sundquist, Jan LU ; Malmberg, Bo and Sundquist, Kristina LU (2026) In Molecular Psychiatry
Abstract

Drug use disorder (DUD) is distributed unevenly over geographical areas of Sweden. We explore, using geographically weighted regression, the proportion of this variation associated with community levels of genetic risk, social deprivation and urbanicity. In the 5983 Demographic Statistical areas (DeSOs) within Sweden, we predict DeSO prevalence from mean genetic risk for DUD, measured by the family genetic risk score (FGRSDUD), social deprivation (SD) and degree of urbanization. We first modeled results for genetic risk and SD only finding, in all of Sweden, the proportions of predicted variance (±95% CIs) in DeSO levels of DUD associated with genetic risk and SD were, respectively, 0.58 (0.58–0.59) and 0.42 (0.41–0.42).... (More)

Drug use disorder (DUD) is distributed unevenly over geographical areas of Sweden. We explore, using geographically weighted regression, the proportion of this variation associated with community levels of genetic risk, social deprivation and urbanicity. In the 5983 Demographic Statistical areas (DeSOs) within Sweden, we predict DeSO prevalence from mean genetic risk for DUD, measured by the family genetic risk score (FGRSDUD), social deprivation (SD) and degree of urbanization. We first modeled results for genetic risk and SD only finding, in all of Sweden, the proportions of predicted variance (±95% CIs) in DeSO levels of DUD associated with genetic risk and SD were, respectively, 0.58 (0.58–0.59) and 0.42 (0.41–0.42). Similar results were obtained in the major cities: Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö. Genetic effects were more predictive in males while levels of SD were more predictive in females. In maps of FGRSDUD and SD prediction of DUD levels in DeSOs, we found results consistent with prior geographical patterns known in Sweden. Adding urbanicity to our model, only modestly predicted DeSO levels of DUD. To explore the potential origins of geographic variation in FGRSDUD, we showed that young adults with high FGRSDUD preferentially migrated to areas in Sweden with high levels of DUD. Our findings provide an initial tentative step toward clarifying the role of genetic and social-demographic factors in the geographical distribution of DUD within Sweden.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
in
Molecular Psychiatry
publisher
Springer Nature
external identifiers
  • scopus:105038400977
  • pmid:42115367
ISSN
1359-4184
DOI
10.1038/s41380-026-03636-x
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2026.
id
ccb9c7ee-eda0-4c3e-897c-1217b2392dbb
date added to LUP
2026-07-17 13:07:28
date last changed
2026-07-31 14:24:18
@article{ccb9c7ee-eda0-4c3e-897c-1217b2392dbb,
  abstract     = {{<p>Drug use disorder (DUD) is distributed unevenly over geographical areas of Sweden. We explore, using geographically weighted regression, the proportion of this variation associated with community levels of genetic risk, social deprivation and urbanicity. In the 5983 Demographic Statistical areas (DeSOs) within Sweden, we predict DeSO prevalence from mean genetic risk for DUD, measured by the family genetic risk score (FGRS<sub>DUD</sub>), social deprivation (SD) and degree of urbanization. We first modeled results for genetic risk and SD only finding, in all of Sweden, the proportions of predicted variance (±95% CIs) in DeSO levels of DUD associated with genetic risk and SD were, respectively, 0.58 (0.58–0.59) and 0.42 (0.41–0.42). Similar results were obtained in the major cities: Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö. Genetic effects were more predictive in males while levels of SD were more predictive in females. In maps of FGRS<sub>DUD</sub> and SD prediction of DUD levels in DeSOs, we found results consistent with prior geographical patterns known in Sweden. Adding urbanicity to our model, only modestly predicted DeSO levels of DUD. To explore the potential origins of geographic variation in FGRS<sub>DUD</sub>, we showed that young adults with high FGRS<sub>DUD</sub> preferentially migrated to areas in Sweden with high levels of DUD. Our findings provide an initial tentative step toward clarifying the role of genetic and social-demographic factors in the geographical distribution of DUD within Sweden.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kendler, Kenneth S. and Zhao, Pengxiang and Mansourian, Ali and Ohlsson, Henrik and Sundquist, Jan and Malmberg, Bo and Sundquist, Kristina}},
  issn         = {{1359-4184}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Springer Nature}},
  series       = {{Molecular Psychiatry}},
  title        = {{Predicting the geographical distribution of drug use disorder in Sweden from the geographical variation in social deprivation, genetic risk and urbanization}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41380-026-03636-x}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41380-026-03636-x}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}