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Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Perera, A. T.D. ; Nik, Vahid M. LU ; Chen, Deliang ; Scartezzini, Jean Louis and Hong, Tianzhen (2020) In Nature Energy 5. p.150-159
Abstract

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to... (More)

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Energy
volume
5
pages
10 pages
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85079724915
ISSN
2058-7546
DOI
10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ce4e2077-bc63-44e3-a4fc-530f760b0d23
date added to LUP
2020-03-04 12:06:47
date last changed
2020-05-26 05:40:38
@article{ce4e2077-bc63-44e3-a4fc-530f760b0d23,
  abstract     = {<p>Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.</p>},
  author       = {Perera, A. T.D. and Nik, Vahid M. and Chen, Deliang and Scartezzini, Jean Louis and Hong, Tianzhen},
  issn         = {2058-7546},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {02},
  pages        = {150--159},
  publisher    = {Nature Publishing Group},
  series       = {Nature Energy},
  title        = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0},
  doi          = {10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0},
  volume       = {5},
  year         = {2020},
}