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The Electoral Consequences of Nuclear Fallout: Evidence from Chernobyl

Mehic, Adrian LU (2020) In Working Papers
Abstract
What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the... (More)
What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the Chernobyl-related premium in the green vote has decreased substantially since the 1980s. Detailed individual-level survey data further suggests that the results are driven by a gradually decreasing resistance to nuclear energy in fallout-affected municipalities. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Working paper/Preprint
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Chernobyl, pollution, voting, D72, P16, Q48, Q53
in
Working Papers
issue
2020:23
pages
58 pages
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d4f998e1-a100-4feb-b2c1-64db07387a1b
alternative location
https://swopec.hhs.se/lunewp/abs/lunewp2020_023.htm
date added to LUP
2020-11-27 15:54:47
date last changed
2020-11-27 15:54:47
@misc{d4f998e1-a100-4feb-b2c1-64db07387a1b,
  abstract     = {{What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the Chernobyl-related premium in the green vote has decreased substantially since the 1980s. Detailed individual-level survey data further suggests that the results are driven by a gradually decreasing resistance to nuclear energy in fallout-affected municipalities.}},
  author       = {{Mehic, Adrian}},
  keywords     = {{Chernobyl; pollution; voting; D72; P16; Q48; Q53}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{11}},
  note         = {{Working Paper}},
  number       = {{2020:23}},
  series       = {{Working Papers}},
  title        = {{The Electoral Consequences of Nuclear Fallout: Evidence from Chernobyl}},
  url          = {{https://swopec.hhs.se/lunewp/abs/lunewp2020_023.htm}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}