The Electoral Consequences of Nuclear Fallout: Evidence from Chernobyl
(2020) In Working Papers- Abstract
- What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the... (More)
- What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the Chernobyl-related premium in the green vote has decreased substantially since the 1980s. Detailed individual-level survey data further suggests that the results are driven by a gradually decreasing resistance to nuclear energy in fallout-affected municipalities. (Less)
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/d4f998e1-a100-4feb-b2c1-64db07387a1b
- author
- Mehic, Adrian LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2020-11-19
- type
- Working paper/Preprint
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Chernobyl, pollution, voting, D72, P16, Q48, Q53
- in
- Working Papers
- issue
- 2020:23
- pages
- 58 pages
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- d4f998e1-a100-4feb-b2c1-64db07387a1b
- date added to LUP
- 2020-11-27 15:54:47
- date last changed
- 2024-09-05 20:02:26
@misc{d4f998e1-a100-4feb-b2c1-64db07387a1b, abstract = {{What are the political effects of a nuclear accident? Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties were elected to parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the anti-nuclear Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Additionally, using the exponential decay property of radioactive isotopes, I show a persistent, long-term effect of fallout on the green vote. However, the Chernobyl-related premium in the green vote has decreased substantially since the 1980s. Detailed individual-level survey data further suggests that the results are driven by a gradually decreasing resistance to nuclear energy in fallout-affected municipalities.}}, author = {{Mehic, Adrian}}, keywords = {{Chernobyl; pollution; voting; D72; P16; Q48; Q53}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{11}}, note = {{Working Paper}}, number = {{2020:23}}, series = {{Working Papers}}, title = {{The Electoral Consequences of Nuclear Fallout: Evidence from Chernobyl}}, url = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/194592507/WP20_23.pdf}}, year = {{2020}}, }