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Seasonal runoff forecast for northern South America : A statistical model

Uvo, Cíntia Bertacchi LU and Graham, Nicholas E. (1998) In Water Resources Research 34(12). p.3515-3524
Abstract

The variability of water availability in the Amazon Basin is highly related to the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern over the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. The possibility of forecasting this variability one season in advance is a necessity for the correct management of water in the region for water supply, energy production, and flood control. Here we present the development of a statistical model to forecast seasonal discharge, one season in advance, at 12 sites in northeastern South America from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. Results show that the model has a better capacity to forecast discharge at some sites than at others and that different oceanic regions have different influences over the basins. Discharge at subbasins... (More)

The variability of water availability in the Amazon Basin is highly related to the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern over the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. The possibility of forecasting this variability one season in advance is a necessity for the correct management of water in the region for water supply, energy production, and flood control. Here we present the development of a statistical model to forecast seasonal discharge, one season in advance, at 12 sites in northeastern South America from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. Results show that the model has a better capacity to forecast discharge at some sites than at others and that different oceanic regions have different influences over the basins. Discharge at subbasins in the northern part of the Amazon Basin are better forecasted from Pacific Ocean SSTs while discharges at subbasins in the southern part are better forecasted from Atlantic Ocean SSTs.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Water Resources Research
volume
34
issue
12
pages
10 pages
publisher
American Geophysical Union
external identifiers
  • scopus:0032423939
ISSN
0043-1397
DOI
10.1029/98WR02854
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d9b6a874-15c5-4779-ad3b-545469760daf
date added to LUP
2018-11-01 12:25:14
date last changed
2020-01-13 01:07:39
@article{d9b6a874-15c5-4779-ad3b-545469760daf,
  abstract     = {<p>The variability of water availability in the Amazon Basin is highly related to the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern over the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. The possibility of forecasting this variability one season in advance is a necessity for the correct management of water in the region for water supply, energy production, and flood control. Here we present the development of a statistical model to forecast seasonal discharge, one season in advance, at 12 sites in northeastern South America from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. Results show that the model has a better capacity to forecast discharge at some sites than at others and that different oceanic regions have different influences over the basins. Discharge at subbasins in the northern part of the Amazon Basin are better forecasted from Pacific Ocean SSTs while discharges at subbasins in the southern part are better forecasted from Atlantic Ocean SSTs.</p>},
  author       = {Uvo, Cíntia Bertacchi and Graham, Nicholas E.},
  issn         = {0043-1397},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {01},
  number       = {12},
  pages        = {3515--3524},
  publisher    = {American Geophysical Union},
  series       = {Water Resources Research},
  title        = {Seasonal runoff forecast for northern South America : A statistical model},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/98WR02854},
  doi          = {10.1029/98WR02854},
  volume       = {34},
  year         = {1998},
}