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Fertility responses to short-term economic stress : Price volatility and wealth shocks in a pre-transitional settler colony

Cilliers, Jeanne LU ; Mariotti, Martine and Martins, Igor LU (2024) In Explorations in Economic History
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their... (More)
This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context. (Less)
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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Wealth shock, Price volatility, Pre-transitional, Postponement, Fertility, Cure models, Cape colony, J13, N17
in
Explorations in Economic History
publisher
Elsevier
ISSN
0014-4983
DOI
10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101620
project
The establishment, growth and legacy of a settler colony: Quantitative panel studies of the political economy of Cape Colony
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dcbac5ea-02c6-48b4-8376-e5189b2da0b7
date added to LUP
2024-08-19 10:38:07
date last changed
2024-08-19 10:51:10
@article{dcbac5ea-02c6-48b4-8376-e5189b2da0b7,
  abstract     = {{This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.}},
  author       = {{Cilliers, Jeanne and Mariotti, Martine and Martins, Igor}},
  issn         = {{0014-4983}},
  keywords     = {{Wealth shock; Price volatility; Pre-transitional; Postponement; Fertility; Cure models; Cape colony; J13; N17}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Explorations in Economic History}},
  title        = {{Fertility responses to short-term economic stress : Price volatility and wealth shocks in a pre-transitional settler colony}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101620}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101620}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}