Assessing the impacts of climate change on the German building stock
Yang, Yuchen LU and Nik, Vahid LU
(2019)
16th IBPSA
16.
p.3563-3568
- Abstract
- This study investigates the impacts of future climate uncertainties in the new generation of future climate data sets according to AR5(5 th assessment report of IPCC) on simulating the energy performance of buildings by studying the building stock in Germany (Potsdam). This work is based on two data bases, namely 'Tabula web tool-European building' and 'EPISCOP'. Software IDA ICE was used to make comprehensive energy simulation of buildings. Four different climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used in the assessment. Simulations run for three 30-year periods between 2010 to 2099. Effects of uncertainties induced by RCPs are thoroughly investigated for long time period. Through the... (More)
- This study investigates the impacts of future climate uncertainties in the new generation of future climate data sets according to AR5(5 th assessment report of IPCC) on simulating the energy performance of buildings by studying the building stock in Germany (Potsdam). This work is based on two data bases, namely 'Tabula web tool-European building' and 'EPISCOP'. Software IDA ICE was used to make comprehensive energy simulation of buildings. Four different climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used in the assessment. Simulations run for three 30-year periods between 2010 to 2099. Effects of uncertainties induced by RCPs are thoroughly investigated for long time period. Through the comparison of energy simulation results, it is found that due to climate change, heating demand will decrease, however, cooling demand will increase. According to the results, for the second 30-year period, the heating demand decreases by 7% and cooling demand increases by 16%, compared to the first 30-year period. By comparing the distribution of the data sets, it is also found that the uncertainty caused by the climate model has an estimated impact on the future heating (cooling) demand greater than the uncertainty caused by the time period. The change in heating demand due to climate change and uncertainty is relatively low and very large for cooling demand. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/dde75efa-cee2-4408-9133-d9733c8e1655
- author
- Yang, Yuchen
LU
and Nik, Vahid
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2019
- type
- Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
- publication status
- published
- subject
- host publication
- Proceedings of the International Building Performance Simulation Association
- volume
- 16
- pages
- 6 pages
- conference name
- 16th IBPSA
- conference location
- Rome, Italy
- conference dates
- 2019-09-02 - 2019-09-04
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85093073775
- ISBN
- 978-1-7750520-1-2
- DOI
- 10.26868/25222708.2019.210771
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- dde75efa-cee2-4408-9133-d9733c8e1655
- date added to LUP
- 2020-12-11 13:11:17
- date last changed
- 2022-04-26 22:26:21
@inproceedings{dde75efa-cee2-4408-9133-d9733c8e1655,
abstract = {{This study investigates the impacts of future climate uncertainties in the new generation of future climate data sets according to AR5(5 th assessment report of IPCC) on simulating the energy performance of buildings by studying the building stock in Germany (Potsdam). This work is based on two data bases, namely 'Tabula web tool-European building' and 'EPISCOP'. Software IDA ICE was used to make comprehensive energy simulation of buildings. Four different climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used in the assessment. Simulations run for three 30-year periods between 2010 to 2099. Effects of uncertainties induced by RCPs are thoroughly investigated for long time period. Through the comparison of energy simulation results, it is found that due to climate change, heating demand will decrease, however, cooling demand will increase. According to the results, for the second 30-year period, the heating demand decreases by 7% and cooling demand increases by 16%, compared to the first 30-year period. By comparing the distribution of the data sets, it is also found that the uncertainty caused by the climate model has an estimated impact on the future heating (cooling) demand greater than the uncertainty caused by the time period. The change in heating demand due to climate change and uncertainty is relatively low and very large for cooling demand.}},
author = {{Yang, Yuchen and Nik, Vahid}},
booktitle = {{Proceedings of the International Building Performance Simulation Association}},
isbn = {{978-1-7750520-1-2}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{3563--3568}},
title = {{Assessing the impacts of climate change on the German building stock}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.26868/25222708.2019.210771}},
doi = {{10.26868/25222708.2019.210771}},
volume = {{16}},
year = {{2019}},
}