Predicting Risk of Spontaneous Preterm Delivery in Women with a Singleton Pregnancy
(2014) In Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology 28(1). p.11-22- Abstract
- BackgroundPrediction of a woman's risk of a spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) is a core challenge and an unresolved problem in today's obstetric practice. The objective of this study was to develop prediction models for spontaneous PTD (<37 weeks). MethodsA population-based register study of women born in Sweden with spontaneous onset of delivery was designed using Swedish Medical Birth Register data for 1992-2008. Predictive variables were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis, and outputs were used to calculate adjusted likelihood ratios in primiparous (n=199272) and multiparous (n=249580) singleton pregnant women. The predictive ability of each model was validated in a separate test sample for primiparous (n=190936)... (More)
- BackgroundPrediction of a woman's risk of a spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) is a core challenge and an unresolved problem in today's obstetric practice. The objective of this study was to develop prediction models for spontaneous PTD (<37 weeks). MethodsA population-based register study of women born in Sweden with spontaneous onset of delivery was designed using Swedish Medical Birth Register data for 1992-2008. Predictive variables were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis, and outputs were used to calculate adjusted likelihood ratios in primiparous (n=199272) and multiparous (n=249580) singleton pregnant women. The predictive ability of each model was validated in a separate test sample for primiparous (n=190936) and multiparous (n=239203) women, respectively. ResultsFor multiparous women, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73, 0.74] indicated a satisfying performance of the model, while for primiparous women, it was rather poor {AUC: 0.58 [95% CI 0.57, 0.58]}. For both primiparous and multiparous women, the prediction models were quite good for pregnancies with comparatively low risk for spontaneous PTD, whereas more limited to predict pregnancies with 30% risk of spontaneous PTD. ConclusionsSpontaneous PTD is difficult to predict in multiparous women and nearly impossible in primiparous, by using this statistical method in a large and unselected sample. However, adding clinical data (like cervical length) may in the future further improve its predictive performance. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4255902
- author
- Morken, Nils-Halvdan ; Källén, Karin LU and Jacobsson, Bo
- organization
- publishing date
- 2014
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- predicting risk, spontaneous preterm delivery, singleton pregnancy
- in
- Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology
- volume
- 28
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 11 - 22
- publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000327899300003
- scopus:84890123859
- pmid:24118026
- ISSN
- 0269-5022
- DOI
- 10.1111/ppe.12087
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- f66954d3-23b9-4e7b-b338-008d42e0b483 (old id 4255902)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 10:41:10
- date last changed
- 2022-04-28 00:16:47
@article{f66954d3-23b9-4e7b-b338-008d42e0b483,
abstract = {{BackgroundPrediction of a woman's risk of a spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) is a core challenge and an unresolved problem in today's obstetric practice. The objective of this study was to develop prediction models for spontaneous PTD (<37 weeks). MethodsA population-based register study of women born in Sweden with spontaneous onset of delivery was designed using Swedish Medical Birth Register data for 1992-2008. Predictive variables were identified by multiple logistic regression analysis, and outputs were used to calculate adjusted likelihood ratios in primiparous (n=199272) and multiparous (n=249580) singleton pregnant women. The predictive ability of each model was validated in a separate test sample for primiparous (n=190936) and multiparous (n=239203) women, respectively. ResultsFor multiparous women, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73, 0.74] indicated a satisfying performance of the model, while for primiparous women, it was rather poor {AUC: 0.58 [95% CI 0.57, 0.58]}. For both primiparous and multiparous women, the prediction models were quite good for pregnancies with comparatively low risk for spontaneous PTD, whereas more limited to predict pregnancies with 30% risk of spontaneous PTD. ConclusionsSpontaneous PTD is difficult to predict in multiparous women and nearly impossible in primiparous, by using this statistical method in a large and unselected sample. However, adding clinical data (like cervical length) may in the future further improve its predictive performance.}},
author = {{Morken, Nils-Halvdan and Källén, Karin and Jacobsson, Bo}},
issn = {{0269-5022}},
keywords = {{predicting risk; spontaneous preterm delivery; singleton pregnancy}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{1}},
pages = {{11--22}},
publisher = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
series = {{Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology}},
title = {{Predicting Risk of Spontaneous Preterm Delivery in Women with a Singleton Pregnancy}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ppe.12087}},
doi = {{10.1111/ppe.12087}},
volume = {{28}},
year = {{2014}},
}