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Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges

Dooley, Kate ; Lund Christiansen, Kirstine LU ; Lund, Jens Friis ; Carton, Wim LU orcid and Self, Alister (2024) In Nature Communications 15.
Abstract
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land... (More)
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges and indicates a need for more transparency around the role of land in national climate mitigation plans. (Less)
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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Communications
volume
15
article number
9118
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:39438491
  • scopus:85207480476
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fcfd812d-6f1c-496c-ab4f-47774dd1e212
date added to LUP
2024-10-23 21:26:15
date last changed
2025-04-04 13:54:12
@article{fcfd812d-6f1c-496c-ab4f-47774dd1e212,
  abstract     = {{Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges and indicates a need for more transparency around the role of land in national climate mitigation plans.}},
  author       = {{Dooley, Kate and Lund Christiansen, Kirstine and Lund, Jens Friis and Carton, Wim and Self, Alister}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{10}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}