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Närhetens pris: En kombinerad kvantitativ och kvalitativ studie av geografisk närhet, Natomedlemskap och hotuppfattning i europeiska staters militära utgifter 2008–2024

Betz, Dante LU and Mehmeti, Edmir LU (2026) STVK04 20261
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This thesis examines how variation in European states’ military expenditure after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 can be understood through geographic proximity to Russia, NATO membership and threat perception. The study combines a quantitative analysis of 39 European states during the period 2008–2024 with qualitative case studies of Poland, Portugal and Hungary. The theoretical framework is based on Kenneth Waltz’s neorealism and Stephen M. Walt’s balance-of-threat theory. The results show that the period after 2022 is positively associated with higher military expenditure, and that geographic proximity to Russia is clearly related to higher defence spending. NATO membership, however, does not show an equally strong... (More)
This thesis examines how variation in European states’ military expenditure after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 can be understood through geographic proximity to Russia, NATO membership and threat perception. The study combines a quantitative analysis of 39 European states during the period 2008–2024 with qualitative case studies of Poland, Portugal and Hungary. The theoretical framework is based on Kenneth Waltz’s neorealism and Stephen M. Walt’s balance-of-threat theory. The results show that the period after 2022 is positively associated with higher military expenditure, and that geographic proximity to Russia is clearly related to higher defence spending. NATO membership, however, does not show an equally strong independent relationship in the regression analyses. The case studies are used to deepen the understanding of how threat perception and political justifications vary between states. The thesis therefore argues that European states’ military expenditure after 2022 is best understood through a combination of geographic exposure, alliance context and national threat perception. (Less)
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author
Betz, Dante LU and Mehmeti, Edmir LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVK04 20261
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
military expenditure, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, threat perception, neorealism, balance-of-threat, Poland, Portugal, Hungary.
language
Swedish
id
9227567
date added to LUP
2026-06-16 11:14:13
date last changed
2026-06-16 11:14:13
@misc{9227567,
  abstract     = {{This thesis examines how variation in European states’ military expenditure after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 can be understood through geographic proximity to Russia, NATO membership and threat perception. The study combines a quantitative analysis of 39 European states during the period 2008–2024 with qualitative case studies of Poland, Portugal and Hungary. The theoretical framework is based on Kenneth Waltz’s neorealism and Stephen M. Walt’s balance-of-threat theory. The results show that the period after 2022 is positively associated with higher military expenditure, and that geographic proximity to Russia is clearly related to higher defence spending. NATO membership, however, does not show an equally strong independent relationship in the regression analyses. The case studies are used to deepen the understanding of how threat perception and political justifications vary between states. The thesis therefore argues that European states’ military expenditure after 2022 is best understood through a combination of geographic exposure, alliance context and national threat perception.}},
  author       = {{Betz, Dante and Mehmeti, Edmir}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Närhetens pris: En kombinerad kvantitativ och kvalitativ studie av geografisk närhet, Natomedlemskap och hotuppfattning i europeiska staters militära utgifter 2008–2024}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}