A risk score model to predict incidental gallbladder cancer in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy
(2020) In American Journal of Surgery 220(3). p.741-744- Abstract
Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods: Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results: The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and... (More)
Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods: Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results: The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and 14.28 (P = 0.027) and 0.79 in the validation cohort (35 IGBC). The scoring system was applied to three risk-groups, based on the risk of having IGBC, eg. the high-risk group (>8 points) included 7878 patients, with 154 observed and 148 expected IGBC cases. Conclusion: We present the first risk score model to predict IGBC. The model estimates the expected risk for the individual patient and may help to optimize treatment strategies.
(Less)
- author
- Muszynska, Carolina LU ; Nilsson, Johan LU ; Lundgren, Linda ; Lindell, Gert LU ; Andersson, Roland LU ; Sandström, Per and Andersson, Bodil LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2020
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Incidental gallbladder cancer, Risk score model
- in
- American Journal of Surgery
- volume
- 220
- issue
- 3
- pages
- 4 pages
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:32037044
- scopus:85084862846
- ISSN
- 0002-9610
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.01.039
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 5d201088-dd93-4bef-b0ec-7fe12418556c
- date added to LUP
- 2021-01-08 13:08:25
- date last changed
- 2024-06-27 05:20:31
@article{5d201088-dd93-4bef-b0ec-7fe12418556c, abstract = {{<p>Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods: Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results: The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and 14.28 (P = 0.027) and 0.79 in the validation cohort (35 IGBC). The scoring system was applied to three risk-groups, based on the risk of having IGBC, eg. the high-risk group (>8 points) included 7878 patients, with 154 observed and 148 expected IGBC cases. Conclusion: We present the first risk score model to predict IGBC. The model estimates the expected risk for the individual patient and may help to optimize treatment strategies.</p>}}, author = {{Muszynska, Carolina and Nilsson, Johan and Lundgren, Linda and Lindell, Gert and Andersson, Roland and Sandström, Per and Andersson, Bodil}}, issn = {{0002-9610}}, keywords = {{Incidental gallbladder cancer; Risk score model}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{3}}, pages = {{741--744}}, publisher = {{Elsevier}}, series = {{American Journal of Surgery}}, title = {{A risk score model to predict incidental gallbladder cancer in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.01.039}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.01.039}}, volume = {{220}}, year = {{2020}}, }