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A political economy theory of fossil fuel subsidy reforms in OECD countries

Droste, Nils LU orcid ; Chatterton, Benjamin LU and Skovgaard, Jakob LU (2024) In Nature Communications 15(1).
Abstract

Fossil fuel subsidies continue to be a considerable barrier to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. It is thus crucial to understand the political economy of fossil fuel subsidies and their reform. To understand these mechanisms in the developed world, we use a database of different types of fossil fuel subsidy reforms among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We find evidence for four intertwined processes i) a market-power mechanism: higher market shares for renewables ease fossil fuel subsidy reforms, and ii) a policy mechanism: reforms reduce the levels of fossil fuel subsidies. Importantly, both effects are contingent on iii) a polity mechanism where institutional quality influences the... (More)

Fossil fuel subsidies continue to be a considerable barrier to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. It is thus crucial to understand the political economy of fossil fuel subsidies and their reform. To understand these mechanisms in the developed world, we use a database of different types of fossil fuel subsidy reforms among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We find evidence for four intertwined processes i) a market-power mechanism: higher market shares for renewables ease fossil fuel subsidy reforms, and ii) a policy mechanism: reforms reduce the levels of fossil fuel subsidies. Importantly, both effects are contingent on iii) a polity mechanism where institutional quality influences the feasibility and effectiveness of political reforms, and iv) a feedback mechanism where systemic lock-ins determine the effectiveness of market competition. Our results even suggest that reforms carried out by effective governments with low corruption control are associated with increasing subsidies per capita. Renewable energy support can however provide a leverage point to break path-dependencies in fossil fuel-based economies. This turns out to be more effective when coupled with improvements to institutional quality and the insulation of political processes from pro-subsidy interests.

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author
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Communications
volume
15
issue
1
article number
5452
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:38937481
  • scopus:85197138360
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-49835-4
language
English
LU publication?
yes
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Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
id
7d1a9022-79ce-486c-a553-ce742d33e77b
date added to LUP
2024-07-10 05:19:38
date last changed
2024-07-24 08:29:10
@article{7d1a9022-79ce-486c-a553-ce742d33e77b,
  abstract     = {{<p>Fossil fuel subsidies continue to be a considerable barrier to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. It is thus crucial to understand the political economy of fossil fuel subsidies and their reform. To understand these mechanisms in the developed world, we use a database of different types of fossil fuel subsidy reforms among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We find evidence for four intertwined processes i) a market-power mechanism: higher market shares for renewables ease fossil fuel subsidy reforms, and ii) a policy mechanism: reforms reduce the levels of fossil fuel subsidies. Importantly, both effects are contingent on iii) a polity mechanism where institutional quality influences the feasibility and effectiveness of political reforms, and iv) a feedback mechanism where systemic lock-ins determine the effectiveness of market competition. Our results even suggest that reforms carried out by effective governments with low corruption control are associated with increasing subsidies per capita. Renewable energy support can however provide a leverage point to break path-dependencies in fossil fuel-based economies. This turns out to be more effective when coupled with improvements to institutional quality and the insulation of political processes from pro-subsidy interests.</p>}},
  author       = {{Droste, Nils and Chatterton, Benjamin and Skovgaard, Jakob}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{A political economy theory of fossil fuel subsidy reforms in OECD countries}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49835-4}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-024-49835-4}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}